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  • May the Fourth be with You Effect


    MartinP

    May 4th is widely known as Star Wars day. On May 4th and 5th, 2013 there was a sale on Lego Star Wars sets in Lego stores and on Lego Shop online. Most of the Star Wars sets were 10% of. But there was one set that has 50% off. That set is the 10227 B-Wing Starfighter. Since the set was 50% off, many people bought the set online and in Lego stores across the country and world. This has a bad effect on the future value of the set.

    I heard that many people were buying the set so they could resell it on eBay or something similar to that. This has had a horrible effect on the value of the set. As a result of many people buying this set at $99.99 USD and then selling it, the value of the set decreased dramatically.

    In May 2013, there were 300 sales for the B-Wing Starfighter new in the secondary market on eBay. The average price for all these sales is about $120 USD. That is only $20 USD above the price many of the people bought it at. Because of all the sales at low prices, the value of the set dropped dramatically. Here is the value of the set as of June 2013.

    10227 B-Wing Starfighter
    Current Value

    • New: $126.50, Down 29.80%.
    • Used: $156.20, Down 6.54%.

    Current CAGR: -36.75%.

    Because of all the sales, the set has been devalued so much, that at the moment, the set would be more valuable if you went to the store, bought the set, and then built it.

    Eventually, this effect will ware off. There is one thing we do not know: when this effect will end. The effect may end when the set is EOL. The effect may end at the end of the year. The effect may end next month. We do not know when the effect will end, but it has made a drastic impact in Lego investing in the set.

    Hopefully, the set will recover from this Lego investing disaster and regain all the lost value. If this effect does happen again we may know how long it will take for the set to recover.

    Thanks for reading!

     




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