LOTR 2nd Wave Sets: Will Your Investment Complete Its Journey to Mordor?

I think the generally consensus on the Lord of the Rings theme among investors is that it will follow in the footsteps of the latest Harry Potter sets and be huge gainers. Though we haven't seen any of the theme's first line of set's retire, you can look at some of the prices currently for the sets and see a lot of them have barely lost any value before retirement. These don't have to go far to have a very positive CAGR (Like 9474 Helm's Deep) . One set in 9476 The Orc Forge is already doing incredibly (50% CAGR and not officially retired yet!!!).

But as we all wait for the third movie's line of sets and the obvious Eye of Souron we are all waiting for, what do we have out of the second line that could be a big time set for investors? I am going to go through all the sets and describe them as well as give my views on theme from an investment and Playbility/Building point.

The Wizard Battle 79005

From the Lego website:

Recreate The Wizard Battle at The Tower of Orthanc, as Gandalf the Grey takes on his mentor and old friend, Saruman, who has fallen under the influence of Sauron while gazing into his palantir. Saruman will stop at nothing to deliver the One Ring to his new master and serve him by helping to conquer Middle-earth. Avoid the spinning palantir’s spell, cast powerful staff magic and send Saruman flying from his throne! Stay away from Sauron’s mesmerizing gaze or risk being enslaved yourself! Includes 2 minifigures with staffs: Gandalf the Grey and Saruman.
• Includes 2 minifigures: GandalfTM the Grey and Saruman
• Features throne with flick function, spinning palantir with Eye of Sauron and cool yellow lamps
• Weapons include 2 staffs
• Push the throne flicker and send Saruman flying!
• Battle Saruman and stay away from his spinning palantir
• Avoid being mesmerized by the Eye of Sauron
• Measures over 7" (18cm) high, 4" (11cm) wide and 4" (12cm) deep

My Analysis: Honestly, when I saw this set I was just a bit disappointed with it. I think this really came from the fact that I assumed that we would see the tower of Orthanic along with it. Now, don't get me wrong, I will discuss the Tower of Orthanic shortly and am still pretty satisfied with that set, but this one is a bit underwhelming to me for that reason. I would have rather them done a different scene for the small set and sort of include this with the Tower.

Past what I would have done (Obviously Lego is smarter than me), I don't really know investment-wise that this set has much to offer. Neither minifigure is exclusive although Sarumon is only in one other set at the moment being the Tower of Orthanic. Both minifigures are a little bit different than their counterparts in other sets so if someone really wants to collect everything, they will want this. Honestly to me, this is another 9469 Gandolf Arrives in that it's a decent little set, but nothing investors should look at.

I will say that the playability with this set should be off the chart though. You have the small little duel area along with the mystic ball showing the Eye of Souron which is pretty awesome looking. Think about all the kids that will buy this set and have these minifigures flying around pointing their wizard sticks at each other. Pretty cool. While I don't think it's a great investment set, I think it will sell really well while it's around because of the decent price per piece of $.11 and the play-ability value.

The Council of Elron 79006

From the Lego website:

Plan the downfall of Sauron at The Council of Elrond!
Build the majestic Elven city of Rivendell, home to Elrond and his beautiful warrior-princess daughter, Arwen. Call Gimli and Frodo Baggins to The Council of Elrond to plan the destruction of the One Ring and the defeat of Sauron. Place the Ring on the podium and recreate this classic scene from The Fellowship of the Ring! Send Gimli flying with the launch function when he tries to destroy the Ring with his axe. Beware the Eye of Sauron, as he draws closer to the Ring that will lead to the fall of Middle-earth! Includes 4 minifigures with weapons: Elrond, Arwen, Frodo Baggins and Gimli.
• Includes 4 minifigures with weapons: Elrond, Arwen, Frodo BagginsTM and GimliTM
• Features Rivendell setting with unique Elven wall arches, weapon rack, steps, tree, 3 chairs, a podium with minifigure launch function and the hidden Eye of Sauron
• Includes 4 weapons: golden Elven sword, bow, Sting and an axe
• Also includes the One Ring • Collect the autumn-color leaf elements
• Send GimliTM flying with the catapult function!
• Beware the evil Eye of Sauron!
• Recreate the majestic home of Elrond
• Rivendell setting measures over 5" (15cm) high, 9" (24cm) wide and 6" (17cm) deep

My Analysis: This set is really an intriguing one. It is definitely one that can get lost in the other set's because of it's lack of a battle context. On the other hand, this set is one of the most iconic scenes of the movie and even more, has become legendary because of Boromir's “One can not simply” line which may even be more popular than the actual scene. This set also comes with Arwen, which is an exclusive figure to this set as well as Elrond, an exclusive variant of the figure.

However, I think some people will not like the fact that this scene was done without Boromir. He had one of the top lines of the movie. Now, you can say “many of the other council figures are here either”, but Boromir is who I think of when I think of this scene. The only way to get him is to have Mines of Moria which will be gone shortly and is a much more expensive set. I think that will hurt the sale of this set. Maybe in the future it will not matter when they are both retired, but I just really think this set could have been better. Anyone who has seen the Lego concept ideas with the whole Elf Village knows this set could have had quite a bit more.

Playability wise, I think its a decent set if you have a bunch of the other sets and can fill out the minfigures. I'm afraid though at $.12 a piece there is not enough here for people to really jump on it. My thoughts would be there are better sets in the line to invest money into.

The Battle at the Black Gate 79007

From the Lego website:

Defeat the forces of Sauron in a great Battle at the Black Gate!
Fly the Great Eagle high above the Black Gate of Mordor where Aragorn and Gandalf the White must distract the Eye of Sauron. Use them to stage a scene while Frodo Baggins and his friend Sam throw the One Ring into the fiery depths of Mount Doom and destroy it forever. To reach the Ring’s final destination, you must defeat the Mouth of Sauron and the Mordor Orcs positioned high in the spiked gate walls. Then breach the gate and lead the attack on the enemy! Includes a Great Eagle and 5 minifigures with weapons: Aragorn, Gandalf the White, Mouth of Sauron and 2 Mordor Orcs
• Includes a Great Eagle and 5 minifigures with weapons: AragornTM, GandalfTM the White, Mouth of Sauron and 2 MordorTM Orcs
• Black Gate features cool spiked detailing, opening and locking doors, secret entrance and a catapult
• Also includes a poseable horse
• Includes 5 weapons: staff, 3 swords and a ball and chain
• Combine multiple sets for even bigger battles
• Defeat the Mouth of Sauron on the poseable horse!
• Look out for flying catapult rocks!
• Sneak through the secret entrance!
• Soar into the air on the Great Eagle
• Collect the never-before-seen Mouth of Sauron and Aragorn™ decoration and cape
• Black Gate of Mordor™ (with gate closed) measures over 8" (22cm) high, 11" (30cm) wide and 2" (7cm) deep
• Great Eagle wingspan measures over 7" (19cm)

My analysis: Honestly I could just immediately say “Buy it” and you all could move on. I am going to expand on that, but if you are looking for a quick answer, that's the one.

What's not to love with this set? Everyone loves the gates and castle's that Lego has done and this one is just amazingly impressive. First off, it has 5 minifigures which is really solid for a $60 set. It also includes one that is exclusive in the mouth of Saur. Though he wont be incredibly sought after, he is really an awesome looking figure. It also comes with two orcs which is always good for army building. The Black gate itself if really a daunting shade of black and is designed perfectly so that you can create giant walls and combine this set with others to really make an impressive scene, It's also only $.09 a piece which is incredible for a licensed set with this many minifigures. Honestly I think people would have paid $80 for this set.

On top of all this it comes with a black horse and the great eagle figure which an awesome size for display and play-ability. The gate itself also has some cool features in a secret entrance and the flying catapult rocks which will really make kids want this.

I think this is going to be one of the sets to have of the whole LOTR series and will really post an impressive mid-size set CAGR. Make sure you have tons of these before they EOL (which will be a long while). Make sure you build at least one or two as well. I guarantee it will see a CAGR of 35+ in the first year (My guarantees do not have a penalty so don't take that as a real guarantee )

The Pirate Ambush 79008

From the Lego Website:

Launch an ambush attack on the Sauron Army from the Pirate Ship!
On the shores of Minas Tirith, Sauron’s Mordor Orcs prepare to greet their allies aboard the Pirate Ship – but all is not as it seems. Pull up alongside them, drop the anchors and lead a surprise attack with Aragorn, Gimli, Legolas Greenleaf and the Army of the Dead. This majestic Corsair ship features 3 large sails, removable rear section with dungeon and Pirate of Umbar prisoner, firing crossbow and loads of armor and weapons! Capture the Orc catapult and lead the glow-in-the-dark King of the Dead and his soldiers into battle at the War of the Ring! Includes 9 minifigures with weapons and accessories: Aragorn, Legolas Greenleaf, Gimli, 2 Mordor Orcs, the King of the Dead, 2 Soldiers of the Dead and a Pirate of Umbar.

• Includes 9 minifigures with weapons and accessories: AragornTM, Legolas GreenleafTM, GimliTM, 2 MordorTM Orcs, the King of the Dead, 2 Soldiers of the Dead and a Pirate of Umbar
• Features 3 large sails, removable rear section with dungeon and Pirate of Umbar prisoner, firing crossbows and lots of great Middle-earth Corsair detailing
• Also features firing Orc catapult with wheels
• Weapons include 3 swords, 3 crossbows, 3 spears, axe, long axe, bow with quiver and a longbow
• Accessories include 10 plain shields, 14 decorated shields, shackles, 2 torches, 2 keys, rat, bread, diamond, coins, maps, goblets and a chain
• Lock up the Pirate of Umbar so he doesn’t escape!
• Fend off the Orcs with the crossbow!
• Turn off the lights to see The Army of the Dead glow in the dark
• Drop the anchors and lead the charge against the Orc forces
• Measures over 13" (35cm) high, 23" (60cm) long and 5" (14cm) wide
• Catapult measures over 1" (5cm) high, 3" (8cm) long and 2" (6cm) wide

My Analysis: After the first couple sets in the new wave of this theme were a little underwhelming, it seems Lego more than compensated us. This set is incredible looking. This is a very popular scene from the movie and a good change of pace from all of the castle battles. The pirate ship is incredibly detailed and just has a nasty dead look to it (I mean that in a really great way).

Though the set has a relatively low number of pieces for a $100 set, it has 9 minifigures! On top of this, 4 of them are exclusive which is relatively unheard of in a movie themes like this. These include the coolest minifigures of the set in The King of the Dead, both Soldiers of the Dead, and the Pirate of Umbar.

From an investment standpoint, I just really can't find anything at all wrong with this set. It has the four exclusive minifigures as well as 9 total. It's also a pirate ship which have done incredibly well as Lego sets. Queen Anne's Revenge 4195 has a CAGR of 37.45% and 4184 the Black Pearl has a CAGR of 29.38%! This means we can expect something around 30% CAGR on the low side. I would venture this set may do even better because of the fact that Lord of the Rings was more popular than The Pirates of the Carribean,.

Playability is pretty obvious as well with all the minifigures, the details on the ship and the catapult. Just all around a great set with no downsides. I will have one or two to display as long as plenty to invest in. I would suggest you do the same.

The Tower of Orthanic 10237

From the Lego website:

Build the The Lord of the Rings™ trilogy must-have model!
Finally, collect one of the most instantly recognizable and iconic buildings of The Lord of the Rings™ trilogy: The Tower of Orthanc™! Build all 6 highly detailed floors filled with fascinating movie-related details including the attic, library, alchemy room, Saruman’s throne room, entrance hall and dungeon. This exclusive model stars in some of the most iconic scenes from The Lord of the Rings movies. Swoop down with the Great Eagle and rescue stranded Gandalf the Grey from his tower-top prison after his defeat at the hands of the white wizard, Saruman. Build the powerful, tree-like Ent, with poseable limbs and cool swinging arm function, then attack the Uruk-hai and Orc Pitmaster while Saruman and his servant Grima Wormtongue take refuge high in the tower. The Tower of Orthanc is a must-have model for any The Lord of the Rings collection! Includes a Great Eagle, buildable Ent figure and 5 minifigures with weapons: Saruman with kirtle outfit, Grima Wormtongue, Gandalf the Grey, an Uruk-hai and the Orc Pitmaster.
• Includes a Great Eagle, buildable Ent figure and 5 minifigures with weapons: Saruman with kirtle outfit, Grima Wormtongue, Gandalf™ the Grey, an Uruk-hai™ and the Orc Pitmaster
• Features 6 highly detailed floors with lots of functions, including a folding staircase, LEGO® light brick palantir, opening entrance doors and a trap door
• Weapons include 5 staffs, knife, sword, shield and a long axe
• The attic features a folding staircase, the 3 staffs of the missing wizards, the 2 keys of the Two Towers, 2 maps and an Uruk-hai helmet, shield and sword
• The library features 2 books, 2 torches, 2 maps and 2 skulls
• The alchemy room features 2 torches, a bomb (being produced for the Battle of Helm’s Deep™), 2 potions, bottle, skull, gunpowder keg, pot, cauldron and a long axe
• Saruman’s throne room features lamps, 2 bookcases with 3 potions, map, letter and the powerful palantir with a LEGO light brick
• The entrance hall features opening doors, trap door, 2 large banners, chandelier, statue and 2 axes
• The creepy dungeon features a chain, 2 bones, 2 skulls and a rat
• Buildable Ent features poseable limbs for holding a minifigure and a cool swinging arm function
• Attack the tower with the cool buildable and poseable Ent!
• Swoop to the rescue with the Great Eagle!
• Activate the LEGO light brick and make the palantir glow!
• Set the trap door and banish unwanted guests to the dungeon!
•Prepare the bomb for the Battle of Helm’s Deep!
• Swing the Ent’s arms to smash or grab things with the poseable fingers!
• Measures over 28" (73cm) high, 8" (21cm) wide and 6" (16cm) deep
• Ent stands over 9" (23cm) tall

My Analysis: If you think I liked the last couple of sets in this line, take it and multiply it by 100 for this set. As Ed said in a recent thread, this is an incredibly impressive set (Ed said it looked much better than the new UCS X-Wing).

Before I give more analysis, I want to offer something as an example of the Tower's Power (It should have surname of Tower of Power. Man that was a great band. I digress). My wife recently bought a 3D puzzle from Barnes and Noble of the Tower of Orthanic. It is in our kitchen. Everyone that has come in our house has commented on how awesome it is:

This tower, that everyone has found impressive, is made of foam puzzle pieces. Not Legos. Looking at this set, my puzzle conversation piece has absolutely nothing on Lego's Tower. I think we will have this in the kitchen as well and anyone who comes in our house will never shut up about it.

Along with the set, you get 5 minifigures with one of them being Grima Wormtounge who is exclusive to the set. You also get a great Eagle and one of my most anticipated minifigure: Ent. This guy is going to be a big time money maker. I would venture to say he is one of the top 5 characters from the movie and with his giant stature (9 inches tall) he will be one of the best minifigures out there. He adds a ton of playability and investment stature to this set.

Just with everything above, this set would be a winner. But now we are adding the fact that this is a Hard to Find, expensive set. It is also a Lego Exclusive meaning pretty much no discounts ever on it (since there isn't a LOTR special Lego day to get half price on a set) , keeping the price high. I really completely believe this set will see SW UCS set gains with it being worth up to $600-$800 in 4-5 years after retirement. It is a complete set and the fact that it matches up with the black gate just makes it even more desirable. Everyone that gets that Black Gate is going to want this set.

Make sure you have as many of these as possible when it goes away. You will not be sorry.

Well there you have it. I know I will have one of each of these to build and be looking to get each of the Gate, Ship, and Tower for investing purposes. I think this line will be the best gaining theme of 2013 and possibly even better than the recent Harry Potter line. Plus these movies are already out and are done which means the series can't go down or have a bad movie like the Star Wars line and the Hobbit line and wont ever have duplicates most likely.

What do you all think? Do you share my optimism or do you see any downfalls?

Note: All of the information here are my own opinions and are pulled from my experiences. You may or may not have success with these methods.