LEGO Technic Investments: On the Fast Track or In the Shop? Part 2

In the last Technic EC article (Part 1), we assembled the past performance data for all of the Technic sets since 2005 and picked through some of the relevant and interesting information we found. To read this EC article and review our data, click here, or check out the Excel sheet attached at the bottom of the article.

To summarize our findings, Technic investing has proven to be lucrative, with an average theme ROI of 107%. In this article, I will try to forecast potential returns for the unretired Technic sets that are either currently on the market or unreleased based on the sales data we've compiled when reviewing performance of the older sets. To recap, here are the trends found in Part 1:

By Category

• Cranes (Construction Subtheme) - Strong ROI, 195%
• Snow sets - Strong ROI, 161%
• Farm sets - Strong ROI, 149%
• Motorcycle - Good ROI, 127%
• Non-Crane Construction - 107%
• Service Trucks - Average ROI, 102%
• Quads - weak ROI, 69%
• Car - small sample size, 50%
• Sport Truck - weak ROI, 49%
• Air - small sample size, 30%

By Price Point

• $20 MSRP - bad
• $40 MSRP - bad
• >$100 MSRP - good

Power Functions = average return

Given this information, I followed the lead of FCBarcelona and set up a linear regression to estimate the ROI for each of the future sets. The dependent variable I used was, of course, ROI, while the independent variables I input were Set Type Avg. ROI, Price Point and Power Function. To allow a numerical regression for the Power Functions, I assigned each set with a Power Function a "1" and each without a "0". The regression provided our predictive expression model as follows:

ROI = .97*(Set Type ROI) + .0019(Price Point) - .02(PF) - .07

Interestingly, the presence of Power Function has a slightly negative effect on ROI per our model.

Please understand that the predictions from this model are very rough, so no purchasing decisions should be based upon this model's predictions. With that caveat out of the way, on to the new sets:

8065 Mini Container Truck

MSRP: $12
Estimated ROI: 94%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $23.28
Confidence Limits: -60% to 248%

In looking at the estimated return, this service truck has an MSRP less than $20, so I would guess this would have a little higher ROI since the two similarly priced sets have returned more than 80%. That said, this ROI probably suffers from being a service truck.

9390 Mini Tow Truck

MSRP: $12
Estimated ROI: 94%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $23.28 95%
Confidence Limits: -60% to 248%

Look like anything before? This set has the exact same input variables as 8065 Mini Container Truck, so the model outputs the same performance.

9391 Tracked Crane

MSRP: $20
Estimated ROI: 186%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $37.20 95%
Confidence Limits: 25% to 347%

The crane aspect of this set really beefs up the estimated return on this set. It's amazing how much Technic enthusiasts love cranes. The fact this crane also has tracks will likely increase its appeal and retirement returns. This looks like a good small set to invest in if you're looking to diversify the set sizes in your portfolio. This one may be good to flip as well if you can get it at a solid discount.

42011 Race Car

MSRP: $20
Estimated ROI: 45%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $29 95%
Confidence Limits: -110% to 201%

The two cars from years past that are included in our regression have not provided good returns, so that's really pulling the estimated return for 42011 down as well. The defining characteristic for this model isn't in our regression analysis: the "pull back" action of the car. I don't see the pull back option becoming a "must have" for Technic lovers, so I don't think it will be relevant to its secondary market performance.

42010 Off Road Racer

MSRP: $20
Estimated ROI: 44%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $28.80 95%
Confidence Limits: -112% to 200%

This buggy has the same "pull back" action as 42011 Race Car, so 42010 will likely perform in step with 42011. This set's return got murdered by the fact that quads haven't historically performed well.

42004 Mini Backhoe Loader

MSRP: $25
Estimated ROI: 102%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $50.50 95%
Confidence Limits: -52% - 255%

Another sharp looking construction vehicle ready to capitalize on its construction roots. For a small set, I like this model because it has two buckets, one on each end, that both operate. It's also just out of the dreaded $20 price point which can only help.

9392 Quad Bike

MSRP: $25
Estimated ROI: 69%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $42.25 95%
Confidence Limits: -90% to 219%

Another small set, this one unsurprisingly falls below the 107% average Technic return given its a quad.

9393 Tractor

MSRP: $40 Estimated ROI: 145%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: 95%
Confidence Limits: -10% to 300%

This new model is the only farm subtheme representative. As such, it's sports a nice, above average ROI.

42007 Moto Cross Bike

MSRP: $40
Estimated ROI: 124%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: 95%
Confidence Limits: -30% to 278%

Technic buyers love their motorcycles, as all of them have posted some very consistent retirement gains. This one appears to be no different with a 124% return estimated by our model.

9394 Jet Plane

MSRP: $50
Estimated ROI: 36%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $78.88
Confidence Limits: -127% to 190%

This model has the lowest ROI of any new model. Planes, in the past, haven't sold well after retirement, although there aren't many data points to corroborate this. The model may not have much correlation to the regression prediction, so tread carefully with putting much stock in this estimate.

9395 Pick Up Tow Truck

MSRP: $70
Estimated ROI: 105%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $143.50 95%
Confidence Limits: -49% to 260%

This service truck comes in right around the Technic average and the Service Truck average.

42006 Excavator

MSRP: $80
Estimated ROI: 112%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $169.60 95%
Confidence Limits: -43% to 267%

Recently, this set has been heavily discounted by Amazon UK, so I'll be interested to see how it performs. Anywhere near it's estimated ROI will provide a great return for those who purchased at the Amazon UK discount of $55 (shipped to the US). This equates to nealry a $115 gain and a 209% return!

9396 Helicopter

MSRP: $120
Estimated ROI: 45%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $174 95%
Confidence Limits: -122% to 212%

Another that's been recently discounted by Amazon UK, the recent discounted purchase price was $71. If 9396 sells for it's estimated value, it will return a tidy profit of $103 and a 145% ROI.

42000 Grand Prix Racer

MSRP: $130
Estimated ROI: 66%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $215.80 95%
Confidence Limits: -100% to 233%

This looks like one awesome set, and because this model emulates a Formula 1 race car, it may have better prospects for retirement gains than the model estimates. This model is also a lot bigger than it looks on the box, clocking it at over two feet long. An impressive set that set for impressive gains.

9397 Logging Truck

MSRP: $140
Estimated ROI: 116%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $302.40
Confidence Limits: -44% to 277%
An interesting note on 9397 Logging Truck: some of the popularity of the set to date has been fueled by the B-build of the set. This is our first new set with Power Functions and the model predicts a great return.

41999 Co-Creation 4x4 Crawler Exclusive

MSRP: $200
Estimated ROI: 77%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $340
Confidence Limits: -95% to 249%

Our regression estimate doesn't take into consideration that 41999 is a Limited Edition, so that will likely fuel the Secondary Market Value to even higher returns than 77%.

8110 Unimog U400

MSRP: $200
Estimated ROI: 127%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $454
Confidence Limits: -41% to 296%

Unsurprisingly, Unimog has a phenomenal investment return profile. Not included in the model is the increased demand that will come from the Mercedes-Benz license. Either way, this set looks like a blowout retirement winner.

9398 4x4 Crawler

MSRP: $200
Estimated ROI: 76%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $352
Confidence Limits: -96% to 248%

The regression loves these high MSRP sets. Unfortunately, since this is a Sport Truck, it gets dinged compared to Service Trucks and Cranes. However, this was recently discounted by Amazon UK to $130, so if it eventually sells for $352, it will provide a $222 return and a 170% ROI. The secondary returns may be a bit depressed due to the Limited Edition 4x4 Crawler Exclusive, a muscle car that was built on this set's platform.

42009 Mobile Crane MK II

MSRP: $200 (estimated)
Estimated ROI: 217%
Estimated Secondary Market Value: $634
Confidence Limits: 46% to 389%

As the listing says, the MSRP has not yet been released for this set, yet I wanted to give readers the opportunity to see what a true Technic winner this could be. First, note this is only one of two sets whose bottom confidence limit is positive. This tells you that the model is over 95% confident this model will not lose money. If that isn't reassuring, take a look at the potential return: $434 over MSRP. If you can manage to get two of these sets on a TRU BOGO 50%, you're purchase price will be $300 (not including taxes or shipping for simplicity), and your estimated profit would be $968, a 323% ROI, and a lot of cash in your pocket!

After all that, there are a number of sets that, as of this article's publishing, have no MSRP yet. Here are the newest Technic models that we didn't estimate because of their MSRPs haven't been released:

42001 Mini Off Roader
42003 Action Race Car
42005 Monster Truck
42008 Service Truck

To summarize, since 2005 the average Technic set has provided a 107% ROI, an impressive number by any calculation. While it may take the average Technic set a little longer to mature (think 2-3 years), they will bring some really nice ROI to your portfolio. Among the new sets, our regression model loves 42009 Mobile Crane MKII and 8110 Unimog, and frankly it's easy to say why: they look awesome! As always, invest accordingly...

A couple of notes on the regression model: First, this is not an accurate model because it included only three independent variables, so it shouldn't be used exclusively to make purchasing decision. The 95% confidence limits should corroborate this. Second, the model is heavily reliant on the average ROI by set type, so that's why you see the model providing returns at or near these values. Finally, a number of our average ROI by set type values are based upon two to four data points, not nearly a strong enough quantity to be statistically significant. To parallel this caveat, the data points that comprised the average ROI by set were disparate, so there is some built-in bias inherent in this average ROI by set type value.