LEGO Sleeper Sets: Potential Investment Returns That Fly Under The Radar

When it comes to LEGO investing, the investor usually has to deal with several different questions that make things more complicated; box condition, shipping and taxes are just some of those factors. However, the most important choice they usually have to make is about what specific sets are going to be better performers than the rest in either the short or long run, depending on their objectives. Even more, most investors are not really satisfied by following the herd and investing in only those sets that are popularly considered as good choices, think Vampyre Castle, Helm’s Deep and others, but rather look for something more than escapes the eye of the rest and may produce abnormal returns in the future. These sets are usually called “sleepers” and I will spend some time analyzing what they are and some of the most recent examples.

Even though there is not a perfect definition about what a sleeper set really is, I do have two factors under which I am willing to categorize any specific set as one, and those are the following:

• Category 1: A set that is not talked about much on the LEGO investing community that, once EOL, produces outstanding returns in a short period of time. Example: The Burrow or The Zombies
• Category 2: A set that, even though is talked about in the community as a solid choice, surpasses most of the investor’s expectations, especially in the short term. Example: Imperial Shuttle

The factors named above are not universal, just my personal criteria for determining what a sleeper is. Either one of them will prove to me if a set was indeed a sleeper. Category 1 are the most difficult sets to pinpoint, but also the ones with the highest reward, while Category 2 are sets that probably many investors have in their Brickfolios as probable good performers that will end up being outstanding performers.

Category 1 sleepers are extremely hard to select while the sets are still available, just like it happens when stock pickers think back to the time when Apple was under $ 100 years ago. It is very easy to determine sleeper sets once they have been retired, but there is really not much value in it, since the rewards have by then escaped the investor. Anyway, the most we examine them, the more information we will have and the better chance to select at least some of them in the future.

With the above information in mind, let’s examine some of the recent examples of sleepers in both categories.

4840 The Burrow

Attack at The Burrow! The Burrow is under attack! Race into the reeds to save Ginny and battle the Death Eaters before they destroy the Weasley’s home!

• Includes 6 minifigures: Harry Potter, Molly Weasley, Arthur Weasley, Ginny Weasley, Fenrir Greyback, and Bellatrix Lestrange
• Open the windows, doors and gates!
• Back is open for play inside!
• Three floors of fun!
• Realistic kitchen includes sink, dishes, long table, swiveling chairs, and storage
• The Burrow measures over 11” (27.9 cm) tall

Comments: The Burrow is a typical Category 1 sleeper. Retired only around a year after its original release, the set had already doubled in value in less than 6 months and has since continued its rapid increase in value. As you see from the price guide information, the change from the last month was almost 7%, and from what I have been able to see in the most recently sold listings, the set will be reaching $ 200 probably before the end of this year. In fact, several of the most recent sales have gone for around $ 160.

The Burrow included some exclusive characters and variations, but lived under the shadow of the bigger HP sets like Hogwarts Castle, Diagon Alley and Hogwart’s Express. Now that it has been retired for a while, most investors wish they had bought a lot more of this set than they actually did.

10212 Imperial Shuttle

Now you can build this iconic Star Wars™ vehicle in true minifigure scale for the first time! The elegant Lambda-class Imperial Shuttle™ transports the Empire's elite and the occasional secret strike team of Rebel commandos all across the galaxy. Now you can build this huge and iconic Star Wars™ vehicle in true minifigure scale for the first time ever! The Imperial Shuttle is authentically detailed with rotating double laser wing cannons and a four-seat cockpit. This Ultimate Collector's model features an opening canopy, detachable landing gear, a stand for display in flight or landing modes, a labeled display plaque, and gear-driven folding wings with removable activation keys. Completed model measures 28" (71 cm) tall on stand and 22" (57 cm) wide with wings deployed. Includes 5 minifigures: Darth Vader™, Shuttle Pilot, Imperial Officer, Stormtrooper and Luke Skywalker™.

• Includes 5 minifigures: Darth Vader™, Shuttle Pilot, Imperial Officer, Stormtrooper™ and Luke Skywalker™.
• Features rotating double laser wing cannons!
• Open the cockpit roof to access the interior and seat the minifigures inside!
• Wings fold up and down by turning 2 keys on rear of model!
• Model can be displayed on landing gear or landing gear can be removed to display in flying mode!
• Includes display stand, name plate and label sheet!
• Measures 28" (71 cm) tall on stand and 22" (57 cm) wide with wings deployed!

Comments: The UCS Imperial Shuttle is a perfect example of a Category 2 sleeper. The set is part of perhaps the most popular line of sets with both collectors and investors, yet didn’t received the same love as some of the other sets in the line. Having said that, most investors did consider this set as an investment winner before it retired, and invested accordingly, but I am sure no one really expected the set to jump so much in value in the short term like it ended up doing. Bear in mind, the Shuttle was retired only a few months back, and it has already increased close to $ 100, with the trend probably continuing and hitting around $ 400 by the end of the year.

The Shuttle was definitely a nice surprise. Based on my own categories, this set might warrant the sleeper nomination that is so often thrown out in the forums, but not in the most traditional sense of the term (Category 1).

9465 The Zombies

Help Jack McHammer get out of grave danger and seize the zombie moonstone! Through the mist, Jack McHammer catches sight of the zombie graveyard. He's on a mission to recover the zombie moonstone, but as he reaches for it, the zombies rise from their coffins and attack! Can he make it back to his car and battle the zombies with the giant hammer? You decide! Includes 4 minifigures: Jack McHammer and 3 zombies.

• Includes 4 minifigures: Jack McHammer and 3 zombies
• Features zombie graveyard and Jack McHammer's car
• Zombie graveyard features crypt, 2 coffins and zombie attack function
• Accessories include zombie moonstone and a weapon
• Bash the zombies with the giant hammer!
• Run from the zombie attack!
• Seize the moonstone!
• Zombie graveyard measures over 4” (11cm) high, 7” (18cm) wide and 5” (12cm) deep
• Jack McHammer's car measures over 3” (8cm) high, 5” (12cm) wide and 6” (16cm) long

Comments: Another perfect Cat.1 sleeper example. The Zombies set is part of the more than likely short lived Monster Fighters theme, was a Target exclusive and only lasted around 4 full months on the shelves before being retired. Even more, zombies are extremely popular at this time, so add that to the mix as well. It’s been only close to 7 months since the set retired, and it is already selling for close to three times retail! Talk about some nice short term returns. When people ask about what a sleeper set is, this is most of the time used as a reference, and for a very good reason.

2260 Ice Dragon Attack

Fly to the underworld on the Ice Dragon and reclaim the shurikens of ice! Zane flies into the perilous realm of the underworld to recapture the stolen shurikens of ice from the skeleton army. Suddenly, Krazi appears out of the darkness and he has a different plan! Blast him with the Ice Dragon’s frozen breath before he gets away with the treasure! Set includes Ice Dragon, 2 minifigures and 2 weapons.

• Includes 2 minifigures: Zane and Krazi
• Features Ice Dragon, shurikens of ice and black sword
• Spit ice balls from the Ice Dragon’s mouth!
• Battle for the shurikens of ice!
• Fold and bend the Ice Dragon’s wings!
• Bend and rotate the Ice Dragon’s head, legs and tail!
• Ice Dragon is over 11” (28cm) long and 14” (35cm) wide

Comments: I wanted to include this set for a couple of reasons. First, the set experienced some great short term growth, with a CAGR of close to 100%. It did have a relatively short run of only one year, but the explosion in value has been far more than most people were expecting. Another set that went under the radar for a big chunk of the investment community.

Now, the second reason I wanted to talk about this set is because the Ninjago theme as a whole can be described as an overall sleeper theme, though not anymore of course. The theme came a couple years ago and really not many people expected it to do very well, or at least not as well as it has so far. Perhaps it was the perception that it was targeted to kids to much and that it would be just a short term fad, but whatever the reasons the theme proved a lot of people wrong and it currently sits at the top of Brickpicker’s table of average theme CAGR with a figure of almost 45%.

As you can see, not only specific sets can be sleepers, but also a whole theme can prove to be one as well. If you want to read more about a theme that at this point has some similarities with Ninjago when it first was released, then you may want to read Quacs’ EC article on Chima.

The sets above are just a few of the most recent examples of sleeper sets in both of my categories. As you can see, I selected a lot more from Category 1 than I did 2 because they are often the most talked about once they confirm their potential in the secondary market, and are the ones that investors really don’t take into account as much while they are available.

So, what are some of the characteristics that we can use to determine if a set will end up being a sleeper well before they go into retirement? That is a really hard question, especially considering LEGO is not fond of giving away too much information about sale number or upcoming retirements. Of course, if we did have a way to help determine the sleepers before they retire, they would end up not being a sleeper after all!

I do think that there are some characteristics that help some to identify potential sets of this type:

• Exclusive sets. Not so much LEGO exclusives, but rather retailer exclusives like Target or Walmart.
• Sets with shorter than average runs, but this is very hard to guess.
• Sets not talked about much in LEGO related forums.
• Sets from unconventional or unproven themes. Chima, Creator, Architecture.

Very broad and general aspects, but that is probably the best we can do.

I did not want to conclude the article without giving a couple of my choices for potential sleeper sets that are currently available. Most are what I consider to be Category 2, since they are talked about some in the forums, but I expect their performance to be superior to what most people are expecting.

• 10227 B-Wing: Another UCS set even less talked about than the Imperial Shuttle (leaving aside the May the 4^th talks). A lot of people see this set not performing as good as some other UCS sets given the lack of popularity of the ship, structural issues, and the current round of deep discounts. I am of the complete opposite camp, expecting that the set will be a top performer especially because a lot of people keep dismissing it as a good choice, along with the fact that it is a great model and part of the always popular UCS.
• 8110 Unimog: Technic sets overall are really not one of the most talked about in the forums, but as a previous article by Ed Mack suggested, they are really great performers in the secondary market. Plus, this is the largest Technic set ever released.
• Architecture: In my opinion, there is not enough discussion about the Architecture sets but, in my opinion, these sets will prove to be great performers once they start retiring. In fact, the only set that has retired so far has presented some very nice returns in a very short time (John Hancock Center)
• Chima: This theme can go either way, but if it does end up performing it may very well follow on the footsteps of Ninjago and become one of the most popular themes in the shelves. As with any investment, higher the risk, higher reward.

And there you have it, my view on sleeper sets, analysis on some previous sleepers and some of my picks for the future. I really hope you found this article interesting, and that maybe it will incentivize you to take some risks on sets that not many people talk about, you may be very grateful you did so in the not so distant future.

Thanks for reading.

"ED"itor's Notes: Nice article. The one thing about under the radar sets is that when they do show up on the LEGO investor's "radar," it is too late. Such was the case with The Zombies and The Burrow with me. I did have a couple of copies, but not as many as I would have if I was really paying attention. I must be slipping with my old age. I was prepared with the Imperial Shuttle though and I was always a huge Ninjago fan. The Legends of Chima is the next theme that many are blowing off, yet I believe will do well in the future. With the larger Chima sets on their way, I think the theme is ready to take off. The Architecture theme is a favorite of mine and I believe will have a solid future as well, when they are retired. I am also big fan of the B-Wing and Unimog. These are all sets that will appreciate very well when retired, but people have generally ignored for Modulars and other large sets. The new Grand Prix Racer(42000) is a set that I like and consider a sleeper. Also, the new Coast Guard Patrol(60014) is another potential winner in my opinion. Good luck...