LEGO LOTR: Will Middle Earth replicate the success of the Wizarding World?

There has been a lot of talk in the forums about the Lord of The Rings LEGO theme over the past few months, most of it enthusiastic and positive, but also with some doubters and skeptics. My intent with writing this article is to get a little deeper into the future prospects of this line of sets in the secondary market, and for that I will be making use of another theme that has been recently retired to get a more accurate prediction about what should we expect with the LOTR, and that is Harry Potter.

Those of you that have read some of my LOTR reviews already know that I love making the comparison between these two themes when predicting future performance, and the reason I do is for the current lack of historical information about LOTR sets, since as of this date only one of them has been officially retired by LEGO (Attack on Weathertop 9472).

The similarities between these two themes are pretty impressive once you take a closer look at the way these two series became so popular outside of the LEGO world first, and then how they made their way into the Danish's company portfolio. Let's summarize some of the most important before going further:

• Highly successful book series: Both Harry Potter and the Lord of the Rings originated as a series of 7 and 4 books respectively before making their way into the silver screen. Harry Potter was first published in 1997, while the LOTR did well before that, in 1954*.
• From the books, into Hollywood: After a very short while for Harry Potter, and quite a long one for the LR, and that is Harry Potter.OTR, both of these series made their debut on theaters with theatrical adaptations of the books being released fairly often over the past decades. Harry Potter's box office average per movie was around $1,000,000,000 a figure that is very close to the LOTR's average of around $ 990,000,000.
• After the movies, interests explodes: Even before the series of movies came out, there was already a large fan base for each of these themes, but once the first movies starting showing in theaters, interest in both started to really get even more spread around. Merchandise and a great varieties of products going from video games to action figures, passing through theme parks (HP) were developed based on the success of the movies.

And that is how we got two have two very interesting LEGO themes dedicated to both series.

Now that we have compared the success of this themes outside of our main area of interest, we are prepared to go ahead and see how the one that has already been retired has been performing, so that afterwards, we can go ahead and analyze each of the sets on the LOTR first wave and finish with a more accurate prediction about where this theme might be going.

Taking a look at the Harry Potter theme average CAGR on Brickpicker's data section, we see that the theme places on the Top 20 of all the LEGO themes has released over the course of the years, and considering that it ran for almost a decade including more than 50 different sets, that is a very respectable figure. If you go in a little deeper into the data for individual sets, I can tell you that you won't find even one set of this theme that has not increased in value after being retired. You heard that right, not even one single set with data available from Brickpicker has ever depreciated or even stagnated at its retail value. Pretty impressive if you ask me.

For your information purposes, and to not make this article as long as it could be, next I will present the price guide information of some of the recently retired sets from Harry Potter, as well as some that have already been retired for a few years, to later get into how I think this will be helpful in giving some insights into the LOTR's future performance.

- 10217 Diagon Alley (2025 pieces)

- 4842 Hogwarts Castle (1290 Pieces)

- 5378 Hogwarts Castle (943 Pieces)

- 4766 Graveyard Duel (548 Pieces)

- 4711 Flying Lesson (23 Pieces)

As you will notice from the tables above, there have been a large variety of sets released under the Harry Potter name over a 10 year period, but no matter how old, how big or small, how well known or not, any of these sets has been, the commonality between all of them is a very simple but important one: SUBSTANTIAL PRICE APPRECIATION

Now that we have some accurate information about how the very comparable them of Harry Potter has performed over the years, is time to analyze this in the context of the Lord of the Rings.

Despite the multiple similarities that exist between Harry Potter and the LOTR, the latter has a big advantage that has to be considered to be able and make an accurate analysis, and that is the time it has been around and its popularity over that period. As said before, the Lord of The Rings was first published on 1954 and if we count The Hobbit, it actually has been around for well before that. During this time, the theme has stayed highly popular, especially with adults, and more recently it has added another range of age groups into its fan base, thanks to the release of the movies. As a result, it can be safely said that the LOTR has stood out and passed the test of time already, and that means that more than likely it will stay at least as popular as it has always been.

On the other hand, Harry Potter is a fairly recent phenomenon, that started and finished very quickly, and despite still being very popular franchise, one has to wonder if that will last over the course of the next few years or just fade away once more time has passed without the addition of new content.

I would say that now that the table is set, we can go ahead and evaluate every individual set* from the Lord of the Rings theme first wave, before going ahead and leaving you with you my last comments.

* Not including promotional sets or polybags.

- 9469 Gandalf Arrives

My Analysis: Despite being the smallest one of the LOTR's first wave, this set represents one of the most iconic scenes of the whole trilogy, since it represents the scene that could be considered the beginning of the long journey ahead. A very affordable set that includes two of the most important, but also common, characters in the series, this set can net you some small profits once it reaches retirement, even if only by parting out and selling individually. These have also been spotted on clearance recently for as low as $ 9.00, that makes it an much better deal.

- 9470 Shelob Attacks

My Analysis: One of the best deals of the whole theme when considering its low PPP ratio ($ 0.09), this set is sure to be a winner once retired. In this set you are not only getting Samwise Gamgee's exclusive minifig, along with Frodo and Gollum, but also included is a really cool brick built Shelob that is highly unlikely to make a reappearance in the future. To me, it is this fact that will drive the growth of this set after going EOL, since it is not very often that you get to build a creature as cool as Shelob out of LEGO bricks, plus every Lord of the Rings collector will need to add the giant spider to their collection in order to really be able to say they have at least the most important scenes of the series.

Sam is likely to be re released in the future on some other set, but if for any reason it is not, then we will see 9470 explode in value even more. You just can't have a Lord of the Rings collection without him.

Value prediction: $ 50 by the end of 2014

- 9471 Uruk-Hai Army

My Analysis: A necessary addition to 9474 Battle of Helm's Deep, the value of this set relies on its compatibility with said set as wells as the inclusion of the exclusive Eomer minifig, not likely to make a comeback in any future release. Several minifigs and a pretty decent price tag make this one a great candidate for parting out. My recommendation for investors is to buy at least 1 of these for every Helm's Deep you own to sell later as a combo and maximize your profits. Great army builder.

Value prediction: around $ 52 about a year after retirement

- 9472 Attack On Weathertop

My Analysis: One of the most iconic scenes of the first movie of the series, but at the same time one of the most negatively seen sets by most investors and slightly over priced. In my opinion, this set will give a lot of people a great surprise in a couple of years, mostly due to the fact that will more than likely be the only set that includes the Ringwraiths, who are VIPs in the LOTR series.

An extra incentive for getting this set is the exclusive Merry minifig, but quite honestly I don't see TLG restraining him to only one set in the whole theme.

Value Prediction: Look for this set to double in value two years from now.

- 9473 Mines of Moria

My Analysis: This set has one of the best PPP ratios of the whole theme, and it gets even better when you realize it has been heavily discounted for long periods of time. Only set as of this date to include the exclusive Boromir and Cave Troll maxifig, who are both characters unlikely to be brought back in future releases. LOTR collectors will be all over this set to be able to complete the Fellowship. Some investors and fans don't like this set too much given its "openness", but since this is your typical playset t

Besides those two, Pippin is also exclusive, but unlikely to stay that way for much longer. Great play features and the iconic scene it represents make this a winner in my book.

Value Prediction: if it follows some of the patterns set by HP, I see this one selling for at least $ 125 in one and a half years after retirement.

- 9476 Orc Forge

My Analysis: One of the most unique sets I have ever seen, and a Target exclusive. I don't see this set duplicating the performance of the well known The Zombies just for being exclusive to the same store, but I do feel it will perform extremely well in the secondary market. Completely different look than all of the other LOTR sets, the Orc Forge will enjoy the status of being the set that grows faster in value thanks to the upcoming Orthanc Tower. The fact that TLG will probably have these two sets in the shelves at different times pretty much guarantees that not everyone that wants to pair them will get the chance to do so at retail pricing. DO NOT get caught without one well before 10237 is released. Set this as your # 1 Priority.

Value Prediction: this set will probably double in value in a little less than a year if as many people as I think end up wanting to pair this set with their Orthanc. Best potential of all of the LOTR sets in my opinion.

- 9474 Battle of Helm's Deep

My Analysis: This is the flagship set of the whole LOTR first wave of sets. One of the sets I consider to be part of the "castle" type, this one represents one of the most iconic scenes of the whole series, and is sure to be one of the most popular sellers once it is retired. The one with the best display value of the theme so far also includes two exclusives never to be seen again (probably) in King Theoden and Haldir the elf. Theoden already goes for a large amount of $$$ on ebay, and if it stays exclusive to this set then we will probably see the impact of that on sealed 9474s. The Battle of Helm's Deep comes with a great number of interesting play features and the possibility to extend the walls by doing MOCs or simply purchasing several Uruk Hai Army sets.

Value Prediction: I expect this set to take a page from Hogwarts Castle and go close to $ 225 just a few months after it is retired. It is just to good and iconic to perform any other way.
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So, you just finished reading my individual set analysis and are left wondering how in the world can I be such an optimist regarding every single set of this one theme. My answer to that is quite simple and touches on some of the same points I did before when comparing this theme to Harry Potter.

All of the sets included in the Lord of the Rings first wave, and even those that are coming in the summer now, is as good or most of the times better than most of the sets released over the life cycle of Harry Potter. Take another look to the sets examined above and you will have a very hard time to find even one set that you don't distinctly remember from the movies or even the books, because it so happens that all of the sets that LEGO has currently produced under the license recreate some of the most iconic scenes in the movies.

Even more, unlike Harry Potter, the Lord of the Rings hype and popularity will continue to increase for at least a couple of years more thanks to the current production and release of The Hobbit movies. This fact alone will keep bringing more people into the theme, and some of them in turn be interested in acquiring the LEGO sets representing their favorite scenes.

Last but not least important, the Lord of the Rings LEGO theme will probably not have any of the sets remade ever again, making the value of every single set originally released and retired to increase at a faster pace and sustain that growth for a longer period of time. How many of you remember how many Hogwarts Castle were produced over the 10 year period of LEGO Harry Potter? at least three large ones. This is something that more than likely will not happen with sets like Helm's Deep, so you better make sure that you get some of these sets and add them to your Brickfolio as soon as possible.

I can't finish this article and leave my own question unanswered, so let's get to do that quickly and directly to the point: Will Middle Earth replicate the success of the Wizarding World (LEGO)?

My answer would be a resounding Yes.

Thanks for reading.