LEGO LOTR investing re-evaluation

Some of the older and more active members probably read my old LEGO predictions about LEGO LOTR wave 1.

For the rest I will re-quote it for easier re-evaluation....

Posted 08 March 2013 - 07:43 AM

NOTE: The predictions price range is US-EU price range since our initials started higher and import taxes etc.
NOTE: All my predictions are for 1-1,5 years AFTER the set officially goes EOL.

9469-1: Gandalf Arrives RETIRED

I believe it will stop at double retail within 1 year after EOL, but will probably not climb much more, It is an iconic set of introducing Gandalf in the movies but that is about it.

Predictions: Stopping at about 20-25$

9470-1: Shelob Attacks

I think this is worth getting, it is 99.9% the only Shelob we will ever see, it is currently exclusive Sam, which we are likely to see if 3rd line of sets come out. If you can get it below retail (25% off) then I think this might do very well in MISB condition.

Predictions: Stopping at about 45-55$

9471-1: Uruk-Hai Army

I read that due to restrains from the contract LEGO/TLG cannot make battle packs (like SW) for LOTR, which makes this just a great, and probably the ONLY chance for Uruk-hai battle pack, If Eomer is not re-released (Pelennor etc) then this Battle Pack might just increase nicely.

Predictions: stopping at about 65-80$$

9472-1: Attack On Weathertop RETIRED

Questions are: Only time we see Nazgul? I doubt it, Merry? possible (but there is still pelennor) I think this set might actually do rather bad. It might just be cheapest set to get 7 Nazgul but that will be it. i expect it to not increase much over the next year (after EOL) so unless you got heavy discount (30%+) I think this will do poor, I skipped it)

Predictions: stopping around 70-90$

9473-1: The Mines of Moria

I think this is the sleeper of the line. With unique figures (Boromir and Cave troll likely to NOT be repeated) currently also Legolas, Pipping and Moria Orcs, this set just have it all, except that it is purely a play set (looks worse on display than lets say helm's Deep) I think this will easily double, i expect it to go 2,5x retail aswell within 2 years.

Predictions: Stopping at about 140-180$

9474-1: The Battle Of Helm's Deep

Every says this is a winner, and i cannot object with much theory, but I am just afraid everyone got it and it will take year(s) for price to grow(unlike Mines) I guess this has the potential on 3x retail IF LOTR is re-released in 3D if Hobbit makes great children appeal and IF Theoden will not be re-released much more.

Predictions: 240-300$

EXCLUSIVE SET:

9476-1: The Orc Forge RETIRED

I think it will do well, especially considering we get Orthanc released. With unique white hand armor printing and Lurtz (If it does not come in Orthanc then it will likely never come, doubt about Amon hen) this set is a potential winner, People who buy Orhanc would want this set (or even 2-3) for their display.

Predictions: 80-120$

Now let us look on the current standings:

RETIRED 9469-1: Gandalf Arrives -17.78%
9470-1: Shelob Attacks -30.87%
9471-1: Uruk-Hai Army -22.94%
RETIRED 9472-1: Attack On Weathertop -14.75%
9473-1: The Mines of Moria -36.14%
9474-1: The Battle Of Helm's Deep -19.02%
RETIRED 9476-1: The Orc Forge +52.46%

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RETIRED 9469-1: Gandalf Arrives -17.78%

Retail Price: US: $ 12.99

Comment:
So far the item (as expected) did not pick up at all. I guess my double retail was way over the board.

re-evaluated:
The value has been dropping for 3 consecutive months.Am not expecting this to begin green color trends for 4-6 months
Estimation of value approximately 1-1.5 years after EOL: 20$ max

Alcarin's suggestion: Worth picking up, but only if you can find it below 9$

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RETIRED 9472-1: Attack On Weathertop -14.75%
Retail Price: US: $ 59.99

Comment:
The item is showing positive trends and might be wise to pick it afterall (Guess I was wrong in my predictions).

re-evaluated:
Estimation of value approximately 1-1.5 years after EOL: 100$

Alcarin's suggestion: Worth picking up for anything below 50$, maybe even below 60$, if you plan to hold for 1-2 years
this one might burn high and light with high ROI as some Nazguls did in the movie!

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RETIRED 9476-1: The Orc Forge +52.46%
Retail Price: US: $ 39.99

Comment:
Item showing expected growth, if you can pick it up for retail or even less, you should not hesitate. In May Orc Forge skyrocketed for 9$ worth of growth which is like 25% of its initial retail value.

re-evaluated:
Estimation of value approximately 1-1.5 years after EOL: 120-140$

Alcarin's suggestion: Worth picking up for anything below 50$ Lurtz is getting armed and ready to fight the prices even higher!

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This is regarding re-evaluation of now retired sets based on a few months data I checked out. Must say that Weathertop ''success'' did slightly surprise me, yet the sets growth above retail is still something that will take time. As expected the biggest growth (and the only) above retail shows the exclusive Orc Forge set, which lingered slightly above retail value for majority of its shelf time as an exclusive.

Stay tuned for next blog in the following days when I will re-evaluate still available sets of line 2 and ''detailed'' predictions of wave 2.