LEGO Investment Treasure...In a Pineapple Under the Sea?

OK, admit it. Whenever you hear the term "SpongeBob", in your head, you are humming the theme song of the cartoon show. You aren't alone!

SpongeBob Squarepants, the TV show first aired on Nickelodeon on May 1^st, 1999. It is the network's longest running show ever. The first SpongeBob LEGO sets were released in 2006, starting with the 3827 Adventures in Bikini Bottom, 3826 Build-a-Bob, and the 3825 Krusty Krab sets. In total, the theme has 14 sets in 7 years.

You might wonder, how does such a minor theme:

1. Succeed in general as there are so few sets?
2. Fair as an investment?

Let's start with Number 1: How does SpongeBob as a minor theme succeed in general with so few sets?

Well, how many of you had the theme song running through your head after reading the first sentence or so? Probably at least 80%, and majority of you are adults and AFOL's. Now think of all the children who have grown up with SpongeBob merchandise like underwear, to SpongeBob advertisements. How many of them do you think had the theme song running through their heads? Probably close to 95% (hey, if you've ever worn Spongebob under your pants, it's pretty hard to forget him after that!). To give you an idea of how much SpongeBob has spread globally, I'll give you some numbers to think about: 43 countries, 80 stations. SpongeBob has spread to 43 countries and 80 different TV stations. This is truly impressive for a show about a sponge who walks around in his underwear.

Number 2: How does SpongeBob as a minor theme fair as an investment? This is my favorite part of this article. SpongeBob has the 17^th highest CAGR of all LEGO themes at around 16.32%. CAGR is basically the overview of how a theme performs.

Since the SpongeBob theme has only 14 sets, it is fairly easy to say that the theme is a solid investment. Let's look a little more in-depth to figure everything out.

3827-1: Adventures in Bikini Bottom Author's Analysis:

The first of the SpongeBob has set a high bar. This set has been staying solidly above the $100 mark and has appreciated 178.14% above its original retail price. As the first set of the theme, I believe that TLG was “testing the waters” of the theme and market first, so they gave this particular set a fairly low Price Per Piece at only $0.07. This is arguably one of the most iconic sets of the theme featuring the unforgettable SpongeBob and his companions Patrick and Squidward, as well as SpongeBob's pineapple home and Squidward's moai home. This set has underperformed the CAGR of the theme slightly, but still has offered a very good investment increasing $90 above retail at times for those who where able to get one back in 2006.

3826-1: Build-a-Bob

Author's Analysis:
One of my personal favorites in the SpongeBob theme, the 3826-1 Build-a-Bob had a $0.07 Price Per Piece just like the 3827-1 Adventures in Bikini Bottom with whom it was released alongside. This set has been hovering between $110 and $100 for the past year, so we shouldn't really expect this one to increase by much more. This is one of my favorite LEGO SpongeBob of all time, and is very similar to the busts from the Ultimate Collector's Series Star Wars line of sets.

3825-1: Krusty Krab

Author's Analysis:
This is the final SpongeBob that was released in 2006. This set displays a very important part of the SpongeBob storyline: the place of SpongeBob's employment a.k.a. Krusty Krab. This set has been on a steady increase, increasing 16.4% in the past year, and 267.03% above retail. This one is showing signs of increase, so it might be the time to pick a MISB one.

4982-1: Mrs. Puff's Boating School

Author's Analysis:
The fourth set of the theme and the first of the year, this set has an increased Price Per Piece, as TLG realized what a market the SpongeBob theme had, and nearly doubled the Price Per Piece ratio for this set. This set has done remarkably in the secondary market as many others in the theme, doubling in value. In 6 months, this set has increased by 30%, and 6.26% in the past month, so I would say it is time to pick this up, if you haven't yet! Not a must-have of the theme, but a very nice investment.

4981-1: Chum Bucket

Author's Analysis:
A very cool little set, featuring the never-seen-before villain Plankton. For those of you who don't follow SpongeBob, the Chum Bucket is a restaurant run by Plankton, who tries to steal the secret recipe for the Krabby Patty. Obviously not as iconic of a set as others in the SpongeBob theme, but still a fairly high performing set increasing 2.67% in the last month, though it has been staying between $98 and $108 for the past year. Still a very solid investment if you had picked it up for its retail price of $34.99, giving you a 218.66% return! I do not expect this set to go anywhere in the near future, but still not a bad set to pick up in the future...For a good price, of course!

3832-1: The Emergency Room

Author's Analysis:
This set hasn't really move for the past year, but still, as most of the SpongeBob theme, it has appreciated more than 150% above retail at an impressive 198.5%. As a build, really not all that impressive. As a location that plays a fairly small role in the whole of the SpongeBob theme, it is no surprise to me that it has not moved very much in recent months.

3831-1: Rocket Ride

Author's Analysis:
Now here's our oddball of the theme: 3831-1: Rocket Ride. This one has still appreciated above retail at a generous 196.87%, but this year, it has gone down by 10.37%. Don't be fooled, though! I think this one may make a comeback, based on the prices that current listings are asking for, especially as the most recent two sold listings of this set sold for $142.99 and $119.00 respectively.

3830-1: The Bikini Bottom Express

Author's Analysis:
As one of the cheapest SpongeBob sets at original retail, this one has appreciated 246.27% above its original MSRP, and has drove up 18.16% in the past 6 months, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Bikini Bottom Express arrives at the $80 mark in a couple months, though beyond that time period, I don't think it will increase in value much more.

3834-1: Good Neighbours at Bikini Bottom

Author's Analysis:
This is probably as close as we will get to a remake in the SpongeBob theme. This is also probably the biggest “flop” in the SpongeBob theme also. Appreciating a meager 16.6%, it is hard to believe it comes from the same theme as the 3830-1: The Bikini Bottom Express or its predecessor 3827-1: Adventures in Bikini Bottom. I think this set could make a comeback, as the most recent NISB eBay sales have been close to $60.

3833-1: Krusty Krab Adventures

Author's Analysis:
This is a downsized version of the 3825-1: Krusty Krab. Remakes/near remakes don't seem to do well in this theme, do they. Let's take a different look though: This set has increased by 52.64% in the past year and 94.1% up from retail. 4 years of retirement, and doubling in value in a year is a sure sign of an investment winner. Though down 1.6% in the past month, of the past 4 new listings, 3 were above the BrickPicker price, one of them $59.99! Definitely pick one up!

3816-1: Glove World

Author's Analysis:
It's hard to look at a current set and predict its performance, but this set mimics battle packs of other themes, using 4 minifigures, and a fairly high Price Per Piece of $0.12. This small set could be worth $50 with time (2-3 years).

3815-1: Heroic Heroes of the Deep

Author's Analysis:
A bit difficult to say the name 5 times fast is it? Featuring probably the most ridiculous minifigures of the entire theme, but we have a very surprising piece of information. This set sells for approximately $5 more than normal retail on eBay which is 30.09%. I will guess that this set will do very nicely upon retirement, just because of preliminary signs such as selling above MSRP.

3818-1: Bikini Bottom Undersea Party

Author's Analysis:
Nearly a direct copy of the 3827-1: Adventures in Bikini Bottom and a similar set to 3834-1: Good Neighbours at Bikini Bottom, this set has skyrocketed in value for no apparent reason. Up 27.54% in a month to $62.28, or $12 above normal retail, this is a very odd set, in a good way. This could be a sign to be winner. I would pick up at least 1 as an investment, and one to build if you are a SpongeBob fan, as this is a cheaper alternative to other prior versions.

3817-1: The Flying Dutchman

Author's Analysis:
This is probably my favorite of the current sets available currently. It has has a fairly detailed dock and seashore, plus it has a very nice variant of SpongeBob and Patrick who are both decked out in pirate gear. Also, as the first boat of the SpongeBob theme, this set will do well upon retirement.

Conclusion:
LEGO has had licensed themes be extreme successes like Harry Potter, but we also have had LEGO sets that weren't such big winners, like Toy Story. Lucky for us, we have a winner if we stand by SpongeBob. We see winners pass and if we are lucky we have a few of that set. Rarely do we know for sure what is a good investment, but by interpreting behaviors of sets, we can sometimes get a pretty good guess. Funny and popular cartoon, so why not a funny an popular LEGO theme? The theme might not be as large as Star Wars or as mainstream as Ninjago, but its still a winner. When these sets retire, they go unnoticed: Perfect getaways, and near-perfect investments.

We can look at it from the sets of the past, and get a fairly good idea of how the sets of the future will do, and I have to say...we have pretty good odds. Though a LEGO minifigure in his underwear may not be the most pleasant sight to the eyes, I'll bet the green bricks that he will bring you, will!