LEGO Galaxy Squad Wave 1: Stellar Investments or Space Junk?

Galaxy Squad, Lego's latest interpretation of their "evergreen" space theme appears to be a mix of the old Insectoids theme with a splash of Space Police III and a touch of Ninjago (you`ll see about that later). The similarity to the Insectoid theme of the 1990s is what first drew me to the sets, as it is always nice to see a fresh take on a classic theme. A look at the sets of Galaxy Squads first line individually and as a whole will lend some insight into the theme. Are the set`s on a cosmic collision course to lost profits? Let`s find out…

Before taking an in-depth look at the sets individually, let's see how they stack up to eachother in terms of price per piece and price per gram:

70700 Space Swarmer

Lego.com description:
Zap the alien buggoid before he nabs the Galaxy Squad's robot!
The evil alien buggoid is buzzing around in his Space Swarmer. Don't let him capture the Galaxy Squad robot sidekick with the ship's grabber mouth! Help him to blast away from the buggoid's sonic gun with his jet pack! Get to safety, then aim and fire the blasters to stop that swarming space critter! Includes 2 minifigures with weapons: alien buggoid and robot sidekick with a jet pack.

• Includes 2 minifigures with assorted weapons: alien buggoid and robot sidekick
• Features grabber mouth, opening cockpit, moving wings and poseable legs
• Also includes jet pack, alien sonic gun and a blaster
• Dodge the Space Swarmer's grabber mouth!
• Blast that bug!
• Dodge the beams of the alien sonic gun!
• Measures over 1" (4cm) high, 5" (14cm) long and 3" (10cm) wide

Brianl3`s Analysis: In mildly successful themes, the smaller sets are often the surest bets as they require little capital and offer the most consistent returns. Space Swarmer is a beautiful little set with an alien, blue android, and a small alien ship modelled after a fly. The set is a great starter kit to the theme as it introduces the central conflict while sticking to a great little bug build that will satisfy Insectoid fans. I believe the set, which currently has a CAGR of 25%, will have a five-year CAGR of 15%. This is above the average of ~11%, and if you buy it at a discount will lead to solid profits.

70701 Swarm Interceptor

Lego.com description:
Swat the alien flyer with the split-function Swarm Interceptor!
An armed and dangerous alien mosquitoid is speeding this way on a space flyer! Stop that creepy crawler with blue team leader Solomon Blaze and the split function Swarm Interceptor! When the action gets too hot for one Galaxy Squad ship, split the Swarm Interceptor into 2 fierce fighting machines: an agile flyer with detachable guns and a powerful turret with hidden flick missiles! That pest doesn't stand a chance against the split-function Swarm Interceptor with Solomon Blaze at the wheel! Includes 2 minifigures with assorted weapons: Solomon Blaze and alien mosquitoid.

• Includes 2 minifigures with weapons: Solomon Blaze and a winged alien mosquitoid
• Features a cockpit that rotates when you move and flip the ship
• Splits into flyer and turret
• Flyer features opening cockpit and detachable blasters
• Turret features dual hidden flick missiles
• Also includes alien flyer with weapons
• Weapons include alien gun and a blaster
• Activate the split function to fight back with 2 fierce fighting machines!
• Deploy the turret's hidden missiles!
• Flip the Swarm Interceptor to see the cockpit rotate with the ship!
• Measures over 1" (4cm) high, 7" (18cm) long and 7" (20cm) wide
• Flyer measures over 1" (5cm) high, 3" (10cm) long and 4" (11cm) wide
• Turret measures over 4" (11cm) high, 5" (15cm) long and 3" (8cm) wide

Brianl3's Analysis: This set is the worst performing Galaxy Squad set with a positive CAGR, sitting at 14.76% right now. The turret function of the jet is an interesting idea, but was poorly executed and when in turret mode it looks very awkward and is unstable. The set just fails to conjure up any measurable reading on the "wow" scale, and despite lacking heavy discounts like 70705, it has had slow growth. The blue team seems to be overly represented, with three sets focusing on the blue team, and only one each on the others, and I would say this is the least noticeable out of the team blue models. The set loses the feel of the theme with the inclusion of a useless alien vehicle. Given the set's slow growth despite not seeing many sales and sub-par components, I think its CAGR will halve itself over a five year period, resulting in a set worth about 28 dollars in 2018. I would generally advise against sinking capital into this set due to its low predicted CAGR and you have a better chance of finding a sale on some of the other sets.

70702 Warp Stinger
Lego.com description:
Neutralize the Warp Stinger with Billy Starbeam's speederbike!
Stop the angry alien mosquitoid behind the wheel of the fearsome Warp Stinger! It's using the Warp Stinger's shooting function to attack the Galaxy Squad heroes. Go after it with red team leader Billy Starbeam and his speederbike! Watch out for the Warp Stinger's sticky cocoon trap! Fire the detachable blasters and team up with his robot sidekick to save the world from those overgrown bugs! Be ready for a serious bug battle against the Warp Stinger's cocoon, moving wings, detachable gun and shooter function. Includes 3 minifigures with assorted weapons: Billy Starbeam, robot sidekick with jet pack and winged alien mosquitoid.

• Includes 3 minifigures with weapons: Billy Starbeam, robot sidekick with jet pack and winged alien mosquitoid
• Features shooter function, opening cockpit, detachable alien gun, cocoon, moveable wings and poseable legs
• Speederbike features detachable blaster
• Weapons include blasters, energy blades and an alien sonic gun
• Fire the Warp Stinger's shooter function!
• Move the wings and legs of the Warp Stinger!
• Zap the alien bug!
• Measures over 8" (21cm) high, 9" (24cm) long and 10" (27cm) wide
• Speederbike measures over 1" (3cm) high, 3" (7cm) long and 2" (6cm) wide

Brianl3's Analysis: This is where the Galaxy Squad line struts its stuff. A brilliantly designed "mosquitoid" is the main attraction here; with the lime colors fitting perfect with the trans red making for a convincing enemy for the red team leader,"Billy", and his robot pal. With interesting construction techniques, and a robotic bug just as classic as the original Insectoid theme, the set is probably the most popular of the first wave lineup.

Thanks to the red team minifigures (the most AFOL-celebrated team color) and stunning creation, I think the set will continue its success run (currently it is the best performing set at 30.44%) once it heads into its aftermarket life. I predict it will continue to be the strongest performer of the Galaxy Squad theme with a CAGR of 18% for the next five years. If you are going to invest in one Galaxy Squad set, I would recommend you look at this one.

70703 Star Slicer

Lego.com description: Stop the alien Star Slicer with the blue team heroes! The Star Slicer is creeping along on its locust legs out to capture the blue Galaxy Squad team. Stop the alien's Star Slicer before he gets Solomon Blaze's sidekick with his stinging claws! Split the Galaxy Squad vehicle into an armored car and agile flyer to take the fight to the aliens! Stay away from the Star Slicer's shooting function and its sticky cocoon! Includes 3 minifigures: Solomon Blaze, robot sidekick and an exclusive red alien buggoid.

• Includes 3 minifigures: Solomon Blaze, robot sidekick and an exclusive red buggoid
• Features shooting function, poseable stinging claws and a cocoon
• Solomon Blaze's vehicle splits into an armored car and agile flyer
• Weapons include 3 blasters
• Activate the split function, enhance your firepower and outsmart the aliens!
• Fire the missiles!
• Measures over 5" (15cm) high, 9" (24cm) long and 8" (20cm) wide
• Solomon Blaze's vehicle measures over 2" (5cm) high, 4" (10cm) long and 3" (7cm) wide
• Armored car measures over 3" (9cm) long, 2" (6cm) wide and 2" (5cm) high
• Agile flyer measures over 3" (8cm) long, 3" (7cm) wide and 1" (3cm) high

Brianl3's Analysis: This set is the only limited edition set of the Galaxy Squad theme, with its release being contained to select retailers thus far. The "praying mantas" style machine is unique, but has been noted to be fragile and prone to breaks. The blue vehicle back up the two blue team minifigures, Solomon Blaze and his robot sidekick, but isn't half as impressive as some of the other Galaxy Squad ships. The exclusive red-colored buggoid minifigure will add to the exclusivity attraction of the set.
Despite its limited availability, I don't see this set enjoying hugely lucrative profits, as it is one of the less popular of the Galaxy Squad series. That said, the set is already sitting at a respectable 24.56% CAGR, and has gained almost ten dollars in value since its release. Initially, it was worth more due to preliminary hype, but like most Galaxy Squad sets saw a decline in value. I predict the set's five year CAGR rate will be at about 16%, resulting in an investment worth 83.99 by 2018. Depending on the popularity of the Galaxy Squad series and future competition, it could surpass that number in a shorter period of time, or not meet it at all.

70704 Vermin Vaporizer

Lego.com description: Take the sting out of the alien scorpion with the split-function Vermin Vaporizer! The alien scorpion is on the rampage with a cocoon to capture the green Galaxy Squad heroes! Help green team leader Chuck Stonebreaker and his robot sidekick to bust the buggoid in the awesome Vermin Vaporizer! Tag team the alien invader when you activate the split function to turn the Vermin Vaporizer into a mighty mech and a battle buggy! Fire the mech's dual flick missiles and powerful cannons with Chuck Stonebreaker in the opening cockpit! Then attack the aliens in the battle buggy to save the day – the Galaxy Squad way! Includes 3 minifigures: Chuck Stonebreaker, robot sidekick and alien buggoid, all with assorted weapons.

• Includes 3 minifigures: Chuck Stonebreaker, robot sidekick and alien buggoid, all with weapons
• Features laboratory, computer, flick missiles, split function and big cannons
• Other Vehicles include alien scorpion and split-function Vermin Vaporizer's 2 detachable vehicles: mech and battle buggy
• Mech features opening cockpit, flick missiles, big cannons, poseable arms, legs and torso
• Battle buggy features detachable blasters and tires
• Alien scorpion features flick missiles and a cocoon
• Shield accessory included
• Weapons include alien sonic gun, 2 blasters and an energy blade gun
• Activate the split function for 2 more hero vehicles!
• Analyze the cocoons in the Vermin Vaporizor's laboratory!
• Fire the flick missiles!
• Battle with the mighty mech!
• Measures over 5" (13cm) high, 7" (18cm) long and 5" (15cm) wide
• Mech measures over 5" (13cm) high, 3" (8cm) long and 4" (12cm) wide
• Battle buggy measures over 1" (3cm) high, 2" (5cm) long and 1" (4cm) wide
• Alien scorpion measures over 3" (10cm) high, 1" (5cm) long and 1" (5cm) wide

Brianl3's Analysis: This is my personal favorite of the Galaxy Squad theme. Sporting attractive green accents that spice up the white tank-like truck, the set is a rugged technological beauty. The mech's joint set up doesn't compare to the mechs of the retired Exo Force theme, but you can see that TLG obviously learned some lessons from that practise, and the finished result is a twin cannoned killing-machine that works great in "turret mode" as well. The alien and alien vehicle are disappointing, but the green trooper's robot buddy is exclusive and does not appear in any other sets in this or the second Galaxy Squad line.

Currently sitting at a negative CAGR around -27%, the set is one of two Galaxy Squad sets that have yet to show positive results. The main reason for this is the set is widely available for lower than MSRP prices, and there has yet to be measurable interest in the set on the aftermarket. The easy access to the set for cheap prices has likely harmed any chance of it taking off in a dramatic fashion, but I think the set is solid enough to rake in positive returns after a couple years. I'm predicting a 7% CAGR for a five year period, meaning the set will be worth $84.13 in five years. Don't expect it to make positive gains until a year or two after its official EOL, it seems like the kind of set that will stick around on shelves for awhile. Probably a sleeper set.

70705 Bug Obliterator

Lego.com description: Defeat the deadly alien dragonfly with the split-function Bug Obliterator! The deadly alien dragonfly is trying to capture the Galaxy Squad orange team heroes in a cocoon prison. Soar into battle with orange team heroes Jack Fireblade and Ashlee Starstrider in the Bug Obliterator! Hit the button to transform the Bug Obliterator into a rugged armored rover and a swift attack ship that can battle those bugs from the sky! Launch the hidden flick missiles and fire the laser guns to send those alien bugs crawling back to where they came from! Includes 4 minifigures: Jack Fireblade, Ashlee Starstrider, Robot Sidekick and winged alien mosquitoid with weapons and a cocoon.

• Includes 4 minifigures: Jack Fireblade, Ashlee Starstrider, Robot Sidekick and winged alien mosquitoid with assorted weapons
• Features moveable and opening cockpits, flick missiles, cocoon and laser guns
• Vehicles include alien dragonfly and split-function Bug Obliterator that splits into 2 more hero vehicles: armored rover and swift attack ship
• Armored rover features flick missiles, opening cockpit and laser guns
• Swift attack ship features an opening cockpit, flick missiles and laser guns
• Alien dragonfly features moveable tail with poseable legs and wings, and a cocoon
• Weapons include 3 blasters and an alien sonic gun
• Activate the split function, enhance your firepower and outsmart the aliens!
• Launch the armored rover!
• Fire the missiles!
• Measures over 3" (10cm) high, 10" (27cm) long and 9" (25cm) wide
• Armored rover measures over 2" (6cm) high, 5" (15cm) long and 2" (7cm) wide
• Attack ship measures over 3" (9cm) high, 11" (27cm) long and 36" (93cm) wide
• Alien dragonfly measures over 1" (4cm) high, 9" (23cm) long and 5" (15cm) wide

Brianl3's Analysis: I like this set, how the starfighter splits into a truck and jet, and the alien dragonfly is one of the best buggoid vehicles. Unfortunately, I cannot justify saying that it has high aftermarket potential, especially when the last space theme flagship, 5974 Galactic Enforcer, ended up with a -2.6% CAGR. In fact, the set has 5974 written all over it; while the essential elements of a winner are there (the biggest set of a theme, special features, rare pieces, etc.), the set has seen far too many discounts to be of worth anymore.

Due to the wide availability of the set for rock-bottom prices, I wager that it will suffer a five year CAGR of -0.90, resulting in a set worth $76.45 in 2018. Numbers don't lie, and while the majority of the other Galaxy Squad sets have enjoyed positive CAGRs (perhaps due to preliminary hype), 70705 has a -38.76% CAGR, and regrettably looks like the makings of a dud.

These are my predicted valuation estimates for the sets of the first Galaxy Squad theme. A higher than estimated price could be caused by a shortened supply, increased demand, or continuation of the Galaxy Squad theme. A lower than estimated price could be caused by a variety of factors, from general lack of interest to Galaxy Squad being replaced by another space theme in the future.

Time to hit the panic button? The failure of the two largest sets of the first line, 70704 and 70705, which both have negative CAGRs is a very bad omen for the theme. Usually, the largest set should be one of the best performers, and when it isn't, things usually go wrong (Atlantis' Neptune Carrier's bad performance led the way for the rest of the theme, as did Battle of Alamut for Prince of Persia).

The space theme has lost many fans who have defected to the ever-popular Star Wars theme. Unfortunately, any space theme by Lego faces direct competition from the Star Wars line, something that would be considered nothing less than suicide by most investors. With the Lucasfilm license offering an unmatched cash cow for both parties, I don't see the Star Wars license disappearing any time soon.

Additionally, the overarching space theme has been anything but a haven for investors. The last line, Space Police had few successes and the theme before that, Mars Mission had to see multiple line releases before significant aftermarket interest was generated. Plus, if you are to include Alien Conquest as a space them (I don't I think of it as a space theme), you can add that to the list of recent star-crossed disappointments – thus far Alien Conquest has seen nearly no success.

Perhaps the most discouraging piece of evidence against the theme is that none of the sets made the Amazon.com top 100 Lego bestsellers list. Normally, a theme will see at least a couple sets represented in the bestsellers list, but Galaxy Squad has no such pleasure.

Hopeful signs
The good thing about the sets not selling well, is, well they have to be sold. These sets are going to be discounted by ridiculously large margins in the coming winter clearance season if they continue their lacklustre sales, and that provides a perfect time to stock up.

While the line has been criticized at times for not offering variation among characters, this is because Lego is following the formula of success that helped make Niinjago a winner. Let's look at the parallels: there are four factions, each with a "main protagonist, with the orange team having an extra female character (just like how the first line of Ninjago had both Kai and Nya as fire ninjas). It is arguably a closer relative to Ninjago than Chima, and it will be interesting to see how this factor pans out in the aftermarket.

The first line of Galaxy Squad sets is clean, relatively fresh, and well executed. Unfortunately, it looks like it will follow the footsteps of similar recent themes, with only the smaller sets seeing monetary gains. Four unique characters are part of the model that made Ninjago a wild success, a model which Galaxy Squad has tried with somewhat success to replicate.. Sadly, the space theme just doesn't seem to generate enough interest to follow that path. Bottom line, don't buy any of these at retail for investments, especially the more expensive sets. A stellar opening wave? Not exactly. But, if you play your cosmic cards right, you could come out with healthy profits.

*Statistics and data for this article was taken from Brickset, Bricklink, and Brickpicker*