LEGO City Sets 2014: Possible Investment Targets

Many of us grew up on LEGO City sets.  With each passing year, LEGO seems to produce a new Fire or Police Station, yet many of these sets still appreciate very well in the LEGO secondary market.  Let's take a look at some City sets that might do well in 2014...

First, and in all fairness, I have to tell you I'm Canadian - BUT - that when I head to the US I drive north.  Yes, I live in Windsor, Ontario,  Stephen Colbert's least favorite city on the map.  Being Canadian means that a few sets on this list might not be as readily available in your neck of the woods but as of early January 2014 most are still in stock at TRU.CA, although if you think US TRU prices are bloated, I warn you to check their Canadian counterpart whilst sitting down lest you crap your pants while standing (which everyone knows is better than doing so whilst sitting) - yes that is MSRP for TRU here.  Some of the sets on this list are also available at other retailers in Canada, so I would surmise that some stores somewhere close to you might have some of these.

Why City?  I know I write about Friends a lot, and I came out of my dark ages largely because I was blown away by Star Wars UCS sets, but as a child City scenes were always my favorite.  Trains, houses, buildings, etc.  Especially trains, and trains need destinations.  With all the sub themes that have been done since I was a child, today's young builders (or me, a middle-aged builder) have so many more awesome options than when I was a lad.  Another reason for City?  A healthy CAGR of over 20%, which is actually really impressive considering that TLG releases so many City sets.  Obviously with that many sets there are likely some real winner and some duds.  I touched on the Coast Guard theme a little in a different post, so I'm not going to re-write about them here, but suffice to say I still like the three biggest sets in that sub theme to appreciate nicely.  If you see any of these three with a nice discount, I'd grab them.

With retailers seemingly slowly restocking it is hard to say what you'll have access to in your neighborhood, but whatever City sets get stocked are a good bet to see sales and possibly clearance before the summer wave of City: Arctic sets (I think the sled dogs are awesome) and that is when I'm targeting these sets (as well as any other promo/sale/deal I can find).  Perhaps I can convince you to do likewise?

Lego 4204 The Mine

Target Level: Very High

As the largest set in this sub theme, the gold mine is, to me, a very solid investment pick.  Lego has only done this sub theme once, and anything unique has a lot going for it, as well as the fact that this set features a ton of playability as well as displayability. (yes, that is a word now).  Construction-type sets have done pretty well - check out the numbers on the 2009 Construction sub theme, and I think this Mining theme correlates loosely with this theme.  Essentially, the two largest sets are approaching plus 100% from retail (7633 Construction Site and 7632 Crawler Crane).  The Mine did very, very well during its first Christmas, as third party Amazon sellers were selling this for $177.  This Christmas was solid but unspectacular, as the sets are largely gone from brick and mortar locations and can be found mostly online.  Demand won't be as high as some other sets, but you likely don't have as much competition from other investors as City sets tend to not get much talk on the forums.  Even now, Amazon.co.uk has them 31% off (although I picked up six before Christmas during the 40% off sale, which basically made them 50% off Canadian retail) so I think there will definitely be opportunities to pick these up at a sizable discount.

Target Price: 30% off US retail

Target Sale Price: This 2012 set is likely going to be phased out for the upcoming Arctic sub theme, giving it a roughly two year run, and I'd think by 2016 my target sale price would be $180-$200.  It seems unlikely for this to get a reboot anytime soon, so I think you probably have 3-4 years from now without worrying of remakes.

Lego 3368 Space Center

Target Level: High

This set, unlike those in the Mining sub theme, is already on the way out, so much so that the door is literally hitting this set on the butt as it escapes.  This is still available at TRU.CA and probably can be found at mom & pop type places or lesser known retailers than the big three or four.  Amazon.co.uk had these on for thirty pounds just before Christmas and sold out quickly, so if you do see these on sale hesitation might result in missing out entirely.  While space has a long history in Lego lore, this is the only City/Space sub theme, and since it sold out at S&H prices have already started to rise.

Target Price: You can get this now for $89.99 + tax at TRU.ca, but they haven't sold out of them at this price so I'm inclined to wait for at least 20% off and/or a good promotion that gets you a free polybag.  Getting this at US retail ($69) or lower is pretty solid.

Target Sale Price: You won't have to wait long on this one.  If you can score a good deal you could probably try to list it as a BIN in the 2014 holiday season.  Space is always popular with kids and there shouldn't be too much competition from too many rival sellers (I don't think I've read one forum thread about this sub theme or set).  For the first holiday season post-EOL I don't think $130-140 is outlandish, and I'd feel comfortable saying another $20-25 for the next Christmas.  The only danger is that space is popular and I'd expect more space sets of some kind sooner rather than later.

Lego 4440 Forest Police Station

Target Level: High-Medium

I normally don't see a huge amount of growth in Police-based sets because they are so numerous, but I can tell you anecdotally that I easily sold my Robbers Hideouts and Police Dog Vans on kijiji in November and December, so retired police sets do seem to do better than you (even I) would think.  Seeing this, (the colored Canadian money) I'm now pretty hot on this set.  It has a lot going for it - a police station that likely won't get a redo anytime soon, a cool bear and a very interesting design (at least to me).  Sold out at S&H, time is running out to get this set.

Target Price: I'm comfortable at this point with anything in the $50s, although once a set sells out on S&H it can be tough to find good deals as panic buying sets in.  As time goes by, you might even be tempted in the low $60s.

Target Sale Price: $150.  I think $100 by this Christmas is realistic, (which is actually Canadian retail!) but it will probably be at least another year (plus) beyond that to hit around double retail.

Lego 4207 City Garage

Target Level: High

Considering this was on sale at S&H recently and didn't sell out immediately, I was wondering if it was simply a case of investors not having enough post-Christmas funds or perhaps lack of knowledge.  The last City Garage set from 2009 sells for $200, even with this garage set providing competition at retail!  It is also a TRU exclusive, and now that S&H has sold out, it is likely the only place you're going to get your hands on them.  To me, that makes this set a no-brainer.

Target Price: Now that S&H is sold out, US TRU lists these at $139.  I think that is crazy!  I think a BOGO 50%, possibly with a coupon or promo is the best way to add these to your portfolio now.  TRU seems to often have their exclusives for some time after S&H, but if a good sale does come along, it might be your last chance to get these below retail.

Target Sale Price: The old garage sells for around $200, and this garage should do just as well, although inflation and a higher retail price might make this a $220 set or so a couple years after retirement.  Since it could move to 'retired product' at any time, I'd be on the lookout for a good TRU sale as soon as possible.

Lego 60020 Cargo Truck

Target Level: Medium-Low

I've snagged a couple of these from amazon.co.uk recently at 30% off UK retail, but I think there is plenty of time to add more to my portfolio.  I'm actually inclined to think they'll eventually be 40% off for a short while and that is a price I would no be able to say no to!  Especially because it isn't that large of a set but is $50+tax (13% for me!) in Canada at retail.

Target Price: $25 or less (I'd go as high as $30 for Canadians)

Target Sale Price: $80 or better.  Like the other Cargo sets, this will likely be available for quite some time, so load up when you see them on clearance but I'd wait for something better than just 20% off.

Lego 60021 Cargo Heliplane

Target Level: Medium-Low

I stocked up on these when amazon.co.uk had them for twenty pounds.  They shipped two to a box and not one was assessed customs fees, so I was pretty pleased with myself to get them at this price, even though I know I'll have to wait a long time for this set to retire.  I'd only bite on more if they were cheap enough.

Target Price: I like these at anything under $35 for Canada, probably under $30 for the US

Target Sale Price: I see this as a $100 set more than a year after retirement.

Lego 60022 Cargo Terminal

Target Level: High

I'm targeting this a little more than the other 2013 sets because I think this has the best chance of being a set that sells out during the 2014 holiday season and can be sold and then purchased again in early 2015.  Planes are always popular - even promotional planes and small City plane sets seem to do well.  The last City Airport (3182) sells for double retail, and I'm confident betting that this set has the same potential once retired.  That being said, it has a long haul until retirement, so I'm looking for very good sales/deals/promotions before I bite.

Target Price: 30% off or more, so $70 in the US.  In Canada, I'd go as high as about $80 or so.

Target Sale Price: I think this is easily a $180-$200 set after retirement.  I think it might be possible to sell this for $130 or so in the fall of 2014 if it sells out at S&H and other major retailers, which it might.

Lego 60026 Town Square

Target Level: Medium-Low

This set is pretty nifty and large City sets typically do very well after retiring.  The reason for the low target level is that this set likely has anywhere from 12-18 months on shelves, both physical and metaphorical online shelves.  I add it to the list because it is definitely a set I would grab with a very good promotion, even though I generally wouldn't want to tie up too much capital in a set that probably can't be sold for a really nice profit for two and a half to three years at the earliest.

Target Price: Under $100.  This will be easier for US residents but I'm committed to getting it at this price one way or another.  Luckily I live ten minutes from the border so if I can't get a really good sale in Canada, I'll have to go north to the US.

Target Sale Price: $200+.  This is a huge set and I think more than $200 seems reasonable after it retires.  As it is relatively new, that is likely 18 months or more away, so no rush to get this unless the deal is amazing.

The great thing about City sets is that there are a lot of them, the theme is very popular and it seems because it is so widespread that different retailers have solid deals on these sets at different times.  I think City sets are also (I'm speculating, here) the most opened and played with sets, or at least among the leaders, which means not a lot of NIB sets sitting in basements across the world.  It pays to target the cream of the crop, if you will, but I'd advise picking an entry price point you can live with and stick to it.  Plenty of others that aren't on this list would get my attention with a big enough discount, but these are sets I think will really help diversify your portfolio and make some steady and solid gains.