Lego Airline Exclusives - Ready to Soar?

"This is your Lego captain speaking...on behalf of the flight crew, I would like to welcome you to BrickpickerAir. During your flight, I invite you to enjoy our in-cabin service that includes free Brickpicker access, worldwide Lego discounts, and of course the option to purchase Lego's most exclusive sets, the Airline Exclusives, only sold here and in a few other airline magazines. Once again, welcome to the flight."

Brickpickers, please be aware that while the Macks have no intention of starting an airline, there is one aspect of our Lego captain's announcement that is true: Lego's Airline Exclusive sets do exist. Every year Lego produces an aviation-themed set to sell only on select airlines. Some airlines sell these exclusive sets through the catalogs stuffed in every seat pocket, and some sell it through in-flight carts that are trucked through the aisles by stewardesses. Needless to say, these are fairly rare models given their limited distribution channel.

Does this rarity translate to investment profits for these sets? Normally, I would say yes. Lego Exclusives are typically very collectible, almost always commanding a premium on the secondary market. Yet, these sets have two fundamental problems: they aren't advertised well (if at all) so VERY few people know they exist, and they tend to be plain (no pun intended) with no exclusive minifigs and a no-frills aircraft.

So, theoretically, these sets wouldn't provide great returns if bought at MSRP. Yet, as we know, theory and practice are different, so let's try to prove my instinct with data. Unfortunately, there was one major issue I encountered: when I tried to calculate ROI, there were no listed retail prices for the vast majority of these sets anywhere. The latest one, 4473, had a list price of £15 on the Virgin Atlantic site, and last year's set, 4442, was also priced at £15 on Brickset. The only other price I saw was for the 2007 set, 2064, priced at €18. So, assuming MSRP on these are £15 (or €18) and shipping is another £5 (these are small sets), our all-in cost on this set would be £20. Here are the yearly models from the last eight years from earliest to latest, and their ROIs:

*Note - A few set values may appear off by $1, but it's strictly due to rounding. Exchange rates assumed were £1 BP = $1.5 USD = €1.17*

2928 - Airline Promotional Set (2006)

Current UK Value and ROI - n/a (there have been no recent sales of this NEW set)
Current US Value and ROI - $69 (£46 / €54) / 130%
Current European Value and ROI - €27 (£23 / $35) / 15%

2064 - Airline Promotional Set (2007)

Current UK Value and ROI - £31 ($46 / €36) / 45%
Current US Value and ROI - $37 (£25 / €29) / 25%
Current European Value and ROI - €21 (£18 / $28) / -10%

2230 - Airline Promotional Set (2008)

Current UK Value and ROI - £25 ($38 / €29) / 25%
Current US Value and ROI - $45 (£30 / €35) / 50%
Current European Value and ROI - n/a (there have been no recent sales of this NEW set)

7643 Air-Show Plane (2009)

Current UK Value and ROI - £12 ($18 / €14) / -40%
Current US Value and ROI - $32 (£21 / €25) / 10%
Current European Value and ROI - €19 (£17 / $25) / -15%

7688 - Lego Sports Plane (2010)

Current UK Value and ROI - £14 ($21 / €16) / -30%
Current US Value and ROI - $31 (£21 / €25) / 5%
Current European Value and ROI - €25 (£22 / $33) / 10%

7696 - Commuter Jet (2011)

Current UK Value and ROI - £21 ($32 / €25) / 5%
Current US Value and ROI - $36 (£24 / €28) / 20%
Current European Value and ROI - €16 (£14 / $21) / -30%

4442 - Glider (2012)

Current UK Value and ROI - n/a (there have been no recent sales of this NEW set)
Current US Value and ROI - $51 (£34 / €40) / 70%
Current European Value and ROI - €1256 (£21 / $33) / 5%

4473 - Police Helicopter (2013)

As you can see, this year's set has no sales information yet since it is so new.

What does this information tell us about the Airline Exclusive series? First, we must caution you against using the data above as gospel since it can suffer from a small number of data points. That said, if you're in the UK, don't expect to make any money investing in these sets. For every set that has a small gain, there is another that has a negative ROI including the awful 7643 Air-Show plane bringing up the rear at -40% ROI. EU investors likely should stay away from these sets as well since there wasn't an ROI over 10% among the bunch, and three sported negative ROIs. There are a couple of US winners here, likely due to the lack of availability on US airline flights, and the corresponding rarity in the market. 4442 and 2928 are the big US winners with ROIs of 70% and 130% respectively. A word of caution for US investors: there are still two underperforming sets among these seven sets. 7688 and 7643 barely made a profit from their estimated $30 MSRP/shipping price. All in all, I would caution all investors to pass on these sets for investment.

"Hello, folks. From the flight deck, we see some storm clouds ahead for these Airline Exclusive sets. If your looking for big returns, fasten your safety belts as the seat belt signs have been illuminated. We expect some turbulence ahead for these sets, so try to steer clear of them as much as possible. As always, invest accordingly..."