Large Scale LEGO Sets: Do Big Sets Equal Big Profits?

Bigger is always better. Some of you may agree or disagree with that statement to some extent, but there is no denying that when it comes to LEGO investing, the larger the set, the greatest its possibilities of becoming a great performer.

In almost every aspect of life, people are usually very interested in figuring out what is the largest “anything”, as evidenced by the thousands and thousands of Top 10 or the like lists that have populated books and the internet over the course of history. Tallest buildings, waterfalls, mountains, etc. are just some examples of this. Most of the time, these lists are of almost no use to the public other than for entertainment value or, in some way, education, but when it comes to LEGO specifically, you will be very likely notice a positive correlation between the sets in these type of list, and the best investment sets over the past decade.

In this article, I will be talking mostly about the Large Scale Models theme, with some large and popular Sculptures sets mixed in, to help you understand a little bit more about their past performance and what I think made them so successful, so that you are better informed when thinking about spending more than $ 200 on one of these for investment purposes. Even though I will be focusing most of my analysis in the largest sets, there are also a couple of large scale models that are over 1,000 pieces but not quite as large as some of the others that will also be analyzed to some extent in the next couple of pages.

Large Scale models are almost always based on some real life structure, usually a well-known landmark, vehicles, planes or things of that sort. The models included in this theme are mostly targeted to appeal to the AFOL and the serious collector, given their high level of detail, great display value, and usually MSRP. You can probably relate some of these characteristics to some of the other adult oriented themes, most notably Architecture, that even though it can’t be compared to the magnitude of large scale models, it does present almost all of them to a smaller scale, no pun intended.

However, there are a couple of other factors where the sets in this theme are more appealing than the rest, and one of them is in the Price per Piece department, where some of the largest sets provide you a lot of bang for your buck. We will examine some of these sets later on, but just give you an idea, the 10189 Taj Mahal and 10214 Tower Bridge’s price per piece ratios are $ 0.05 and $ 0.06, respectively, a figure that is well below most other LEGO sets. The other one, equally important, is that even when these sets retire and skyrocket in value in the secondary market, the large amount of pieces you get for your money can make a large purchase a little easier to swallow. It is not the same to pay $ 700 for a set with 1,000 pieces than the same amount for one with 4,000.

Before going into specifics, let’s take a look at the list of the 10 largest LEGO sets ever produced up to this point and also take a look at the theme’s overall performance numbers:

1- 10189 Taj Mahal
2- 10179 UCS Millenium Falcon
3- 10214 Tower Bridge
4- 10188 Death Star
5- 10143 Death Star II
6- 10181 Eiffel Tower
7- 10196 Grand Carousel
8- 10221 Super Star Destroyer
9- 10030 Imperial Star Destroyer
10- 3450 Statue of Liberty

As you can see, I highlighted the Large Scale Models/Sculpture sets in the list above, where they constitute exactly half of the list, the other half being all UCS Star Wars sets. As you will see later, all of them have been excellent performers once retired (Tower Bridge is still currently available).

Let’s now go a little into the theme’s overall numbers.

According to Brickpicker’s data, the Large Scale Model’s average CAGR is 22.37 %, earning it the 11th place in that regard. One thing you need to keep in mind is that this number is including sets of the theme that are currently available, so if we take out those and examine only those that have been retired we come up with a much higher 29.84 %. It is clear this sets are one of the most popular with LEGO fans!

With all that behind us, let’s take a look at the more popular and largest sets individually.

10189 Taj Mahal

Build the breathtaking Taj Mahal!
The famous Taj Mahal jewel of India is known all over the globe for its incredible beauty and elegance. Now you can recreate this modern wonder of the world for yourself! Designed for experienced builders, the LEGO Taj Mahal model features advanced building techniques, rare elements and colors, and realistic details of architecture. With over 5,900 pieces, the Taj Mahal makes an awesome addition to any LEGO collection!

• Amazingly detailed model features the base, minarets, domes, finials, arches, and stairs in the front!
• Measures over 20" (51cm) wide and over 16" (41cm) tall!

Comments: Largest LEGO set EVER produced with almost 6,000 pieces. The finished model is just too impressive for me to be able to make it justice in a few words, so I’ll focus mostly on its numbers and let you buy one out of eBay so you can see it for yourself . The UCS Millenium Falcon is most of the time the set that is mentioned the most in the LEGO investment community, and for good reason, but this model really is not too far behind 10179. With an extremely low price per piece ratio, this set has grown at over 35 % EACH YEAR (CAGR) since 2008, a number that almost no investment out there is able to achieve even in only 1 specific year, and certainly not with the low risk LEGO sets usually present. Even more, the Taj continues to grow steadily in value, despite presenting some short periods of drops in market value as evidenced by April’s decline, with a 6 month growth of around 13 %. Sale activity is also pretty high and consistent for a set over $ 1,000.

10181 Eiffel Tower

Build one of the most famous and spectacular landmarks in the world!
Created by popular demand, the LEGO Eiffel Tower is a stunning model for construction and display, built to 1:300 scale from the real tower's original blueprints. From the flag at the top to the elevators and other realistic details, this is as authentic as it gets.

• Eiffel Tower stands 42.5" (108 cm) high and base measures 20" x 20" (50 cm x 50 cm)!
• Can be disassembled in 3 sections for easy transport and storage!

Comments: One of the most recognizable landmarks in the entire world, this impressive model is more than one meter tall (sorry guys, where I come from we use the metric system lol). While this set comes with over 3,000 pieces, there is really not as much variety as you would think. Despite its great looking appearance and size, it seems that this set is not named as much as some of the others on this list, something I find very interesting. The set took a large hit in the month of December, and even though it has gone up some after that, it still has not recovered to the level it used to be. Still, with a current market value of over $1,000, a CAGR over 30% and a total change over retail of around 400%, this set’s performance can’t be judged by a short term bump. In fact, the last 4 New 10181 sold on eBay have gone for an average of $ 1,150 indicating it may not take too long for this set to go back up to where it was before…and probably even higher.

10196 Grand Carousel

It’s a wonderful day for a ride on the merry-go-round!
Features and Benefits
This elegant and beautifully detailed LEGO model isn’t just for show – it really spins and plays music while the horses and swing boats move up and down! Built with intricate, lifelike ornaments and features, the Grand Carousel is a spectacular addition to any LEGO display or carousel collection. Includes 9 minifigures and LEGO Power Functions motor and sound brick. Measures over 12” (30 cm) x 12” (30 cm) x over 12” (30 cm).

• Experience the romance of this merry-go-round decorated with brightly colored elements!
• Features 9 minifigures including ride operator!
• The platform rotates clockwise/counter clockwise and the music plays!
• The swing boats and galloping jumper horses move up and down!
• Lots of realistic details including reflective decals on the center pole, ornate ornamentation, fleur de lys, bejeweled horses and profiles of jesters!
• The tent-like top is made of canvas!
• The Grand Carousel measures over 12” (30 cm) x 12” (30 cm) x over 12” (30 cm).

Comments: An extremely great looking and unique model this carousel has sounds, movements and some very rare parts, including the “cloth” like parts that cover the upper section. Growth wise, this set has been going up consistently over the past few months, almost 50 % over the past year alone! This is more than likely going to continue in the near future, as I think this set really didn’t get as much attention while it was still available and now a lot of people seem to be interesting in purchasing it. I can’t blame them, it really is an unique set.

3450 Statue of Liberty

One of America's most famous monuments!
Create a stunning replica of the Statue of Liberty! It's fun to build and the only LEGO model that uses lots of the Sand Green bricks. "Lady Liberty" stands 2 feet, 9 inches tall without pedestal and is made of more than 2,800 pieces.

Comments: This well-known landmark has been retired for more than a decade and still manages to present a CAGR of more than 15 %, that’s more than ten years of solid, double digit growth. If you are into MOCs and need sand green bricks, then this would have been the set for you. Even more, given the age of the set, it is actually pretty rare to see one MISB listed on eBay, what leads to believe that the actual market value for this set is well above the one suggested in the price guide, at least for New ones. In fact, the only New listing on eBay right now sits at close to $ 5,000!

10213 Shuttle Adventure

Blast off on an outer space mission!
Standing 17.5" (44cm) tall and 10" (25.5cm) from wing tip to wing tip, this detailed and realistic space shuttle is ready to count down and blast off on its next exciting mission into space! You can take off from the launch pad, separate the detachable fuel tank and booster rockets, and deploy the satellite with unfolding antenna and solar cell panels. Shuttle model features realistic engines, retractable landing gear, an opening cockpit with seats for 2 astronauts, opening cargo compartment with a crane that can hold the satellite and a ground maintenance vehicle. Includes 3 minifigures: 1 male and 1 female astronaut, as well as 1 service crew member.

• Includes 3 minifigures: 1 male and 1 female astronaut as well as 1 service crew member
• Shuttle stands 17.5" (44cm) tall and measures 10" (25.5cm) from wing tip to wing tip
• Take off from the launch pad
• Separate the detachable fuel tank and booster rockets
• Deploy the satellite with unfolding antenna and solar cell panels
• Features realistic engines, retractable landing gear, opening cockpit with seats for 2 astronauts and even a ground maintenance vehicle
• Open the cargo compartment to reveal the crane that can hold the satellite

Comments: This model is not really one of the largest ever, but it is also part of the Sculptures/Large Scale kind of set. Shuttle Adventure was re-released later as 10231 Shuttle Expedition, in order to fix some design issues of this first attempt. As a result, one would think that the original version may be harder to find than the remake over the next couple of years. It has only been a couple of months since the remake officially retired, so there is still a lot of room for the pair to increase substantially more in value, keeping in mind that both have already gone up by more than 50 % over retail.

Other than the sets I have described above, there are a couple of other large ones that fit into the criteria I wanted to examine, but given that I have already talked about most of them on some of my other articles, I decided to show you their performance on a summary table you will find next:

As you can see, all of the other sets I did no comment about have really similar numbers to those we have seen before. Several of them have CAGRs well above 20 %, and the two that don’t are really different from the rest AND have also been retired for a long while now, so the figure has had a lot of time to average down. So, to conclude this section, it seems pretty safe to say that sets that fit these criteria are as close as you are going to get to no risk investments (Based on historical data).

Now that we have analyzed the past of Large Scale Models, let’s now go ahead and examine the present.

10214 Tower Bridge

My Analysis: The Tower Bridge is the third largest set ever produced, based on raw piece count. The set, once complete, is really great looking and as detailed as all of the others have been up to this point. Even more, it also includes some micro cars built from actual bricks that give the set an even more realistic appearance. With a Price per Piece of $0.06, this set is a real bargain, especially if found discounted as it has been several times in the past months.

Another aspect to consider is that, even though it may not be as famous as the Taj or Eiffel Tower, the Tower Bridge of London is easily one of the world’s most well-known landmarks, so that should not be an issue to worry about too much. The only reason I mention this is because I know there are some people that just don’t see this structure as one of the most famous in the world, but I believe it actually is.

Value Prediction: As I said on my review of this set, given some of the changes that have been going on the LEGO investment market, specifically an increase in investors, I don’t see this set exactly replicating what previous Large Scale models like the Taj Mahal did in the secondary market. Having said that, I do expect the set to make considerable gains in value, probably performing with a CAGR of 19 % by the time it has been retired for two years. That is an above average performance that should make everyone who owns this set very happy!
 

*Graph assumes 2013 retirement.

With that we pretty much close all those sets that have been already retired and are currently available, so what does the future have in store for us?

10234 Sidney Opera House

Up to the date this article was written there had not been any official information about what possible set could be the next Large Scale Model, but rumors were hinting about the possibility of a 6,000 pieces Sidney Opera House. Since information about that set is official at this point, I felt the need to modify this last paragraph. Basically, the Sidney Opera House that was revealed a few weeks ago will have nowhere near the amount of pieces rumored, more like half, but that does not mean it won’t be an impressive set. From what we have seen so far, LEGO has finally been able to make a great recreation of the well-known landmark that from the images looks pretty large as well, The price may seem a little steep at first ($320), but considering that there are probably a large amount of large pieces it probably still is within the range of the overall theme when it comes to Price Per Weight. We’ll have to wait until the set is released to know more, but it sure looks like an investment winner at first sight.

So, to conclude, are big sets related to big profits in the secondary market? I think they are, and historical information seems to support this as well.

Thanks for reading.

*Title by Ed Mack*