How Much Lego is Enough?

There are somethings that you just can't get enough of, but at the same time, you have to know when to stop. When I first started LEGO investing, I had a problem with this. I had almost never seen LEGO's on clearance at Target or Walmart or the LEGO store, and rarely set "foot" in Amazon. Once my eyes were opened to the sheer number of discounts and deals, I simply couldn't get enough!! Eventually, I figure out that I was obviously buying more than was within reason and had to return some things, and make some very difficult decisions.

Today, after being an investor for about 6 months, I've grown to know my local population of 2.5 million people, and what clearance percentages will last, and which ones won't; what prices locals pass, and what they grab.

I'm more than sure that for everyone, these numbers are different, but this is what I have come to realize at my local Targets.

1. Percentage - One of the fastest things that I discovered was that clearances 15% off aren't all that great, and to be honest, for a lot of sets, 30% doesn't cut it. We have a halting 9.25% sales tax, so for something to be worth it and a no brainer, most locals just skip the 30%, and wait for 60%, or even 70%!

2. Knowing Your Local Population - You know the saying "Keep your friends close, and your enemies even closer"? Well that is pure wisdom right here. When buying LEGO, your neighbors and former preschool teacher are your top competition. You can get to know your local population by being at your local LEGO retail stores pretty often, and go to fairly busy locations. Though people often stay less in an aisle if you are there, especially kids, there's still plenty of time to observe in an uncreepy, subtle way. Just pretend that you are engrossed in reading the package description of your can of baked beans, and you'll be fine! What I found was that parents that walk to the toy section of Target literally just walk by. They may walk up to a particular product and even say out loud "Ooh, little Timmy's been wanting this.", and promptly put it back on the shelf. Poor little Timmy. It takes some killer clearance to make these stubborn parents want to grab something from a store, usually upwards of 50%.

3. Dollar Value - Sure, an item can be 50% off, but if it costs $75 at half price, most parents skip over. I've grown to love parents because of this reason. More often than not, they skip to those tiny $9 Creator sets, rather than going to a larger set like Mines of Moria or Goblin King Battle. So, what one of the strategies that I have adapted is waiting longer for large sets to go on steeper clearance. Though I have found clearance Battle Packs and $15-$30 sets scarce, there is almost always an abundance of sets upwards of $45, which is why I can wait for certain deals, no matter how desperate I might be.

Now in general terms, 50% off is a "go get'em" situation, but how about 30%? 15%?
5% - Patience, young Padawan. Unless this set rarely is discounted, like a modular, even 5% isn't that great.
10% - Decent, but not great. Assuming that you aren't charged tax for this, 10% is better for a less discounted set.
15% - This is typically a sign of a large clearance event, in my experiences. 15% could be better, and I would play the wait game with it.
25% - Now we're getting serious! This is probably a pretty good deal, and at this point, you are seeing more definite signs of something bigger. If it's the last on the shelves, I would pounce, but if there are more than 3, then I would wait.
30% - Typically, this is the starting point of Target mark downs, which typically happen on Thursdays. 30% is nearly an auto buy, unless you have a large set that has an MSRP of $70+, and there are more than 3 copies on the shelves.
50% - Though it might seem like a jump from 30-50, there is rarely anything in between. 50% is just about as good as you should hope for on small sets, as they will get scooped up really fast. I'd also pounce on large sets at this point, and as many as possible, in general, if you have the capital to do so.
70%-99% - GO! This is as good as you will get...ever. I've never heard of a store giving out free LEGO on a regular set, nor someone paying you to take them off their hands. MegaBloks or Kre-O, I understand. Not LEGO.

Though extremely painful, the wait game might end up being your best investment friend. Learn who will pounce and when they do so. This helps to maximize your discount, but still get the set in the end.