Houston Lego Lot Value - Worth $20K? (Part 2)

So, let's take a little further look into the numbers behind the Houston lot. First, I broke down the lot into retired vs. active sets, and small, medium and large sets. For each of these groups, I calculated the % of sets by quantity and % by current BP dollar value. Here are the raw numbers for each category:

Retired vs. Active Sets

Total sets: 282
Total BP value: $17,043

Total retired sets: 98 (35%)
Total active sets: 184 (65%)

BP value of retired sets: $3,840 (23%)
BP value of active sets: $13,203 (77%)

Retired sets ROI: 27%
Active sets ROI: -13%

Small vs. Medium vs. Large Sets

Total small sets: 93 (33%)
Total medium sets: 112 (40%)
Total large sets: 77 (27%)

BP value of small sets: $1,214 (7%)
BP value of medium sets: $5,207 (31%)
BP value of large sets: $10,622 (62%)

Underlying Assumptions

1. I didn't include the DVD in any calculations. There will be value with the Clark Kent fig, but there's no estimate for its value.
2. Four sets were assumed to have a $0 MSRP: 30108 Summer Picnic, 5000023 Essen Germany minifigures, Han Solo polybag and Jor-El polybag.
3. There were a few borderline sets that I considered active: 10227 B-Wing Starfighter, all modulars in the portfolio, 10214 Tower Bridge, 9476 Orc Forge and 3186 Glove World. I listed the following borderline sets as retired: 41017 Squirrel Tree House, 41018 Cat's Playground, 41019 Turtle's Little Oasis, 9469 Gandalf Arrives, 9472 Attack on Weathertop, and 6865 Captain America's Avenging Cycle.
4. Small sets were defined as any less than $25, Medium Sets were between $25 and $80, and Large Sets were defined as any set more than $80.

Analysis

First off, the owner should be given credit for assembling such a massive lot. There are a lot of potential winners in this batch, along with some duds. That said, I split the stats into two groups for a reason: the retired vs. actual discussion should give us an idea of how much potential is left in this portfolio, while set size review should provide a good gauge of how much work is left to divest the portfolio.

I think we have some interesting and relevant statistics to review. First, the retired vs. actual sets show us what we would expect: the retired sets have a positive ROI, while the active sets are currently negative. Yet, I was struck by two things: the relative "youth" of the portfolio (retired sets only comprise 23% of the BP value of the portflolio), and the low ROI of the retired sets. While 27% is nothing to sneeze at, it's much less than the expected return for most Brickpickers. While the retired sets are still relatively young, removing a few key winners further kills these sets' ROI: eliminating only the POTC ships, the Sponge Bob sets, Winter Village sets, and the Jor-El minifigs lowers the retired sets' return from 27% to 10%.

On the flip side, 40% of the active portfolio's MSRP come from the following sets: 10197 Fire Brigade (x4), 10211 Grand Emporium (x4), 10214 Tower Bridge (x3), 10188 Death Star (x3), 10227 B-Wing Starfighter (x6), 6869 Quinjet Aerial Battle (x11), and 10224 Town Hall (x3). With the exception of Quinjet, these are all exclusives and project to be strong performers. This highlights the owner's belief in Lego Exclusives, a confidence shared by many Brickpickers.

Regarding the portfolio's set size, I was struck by how many medium sets there were in comparison to the others - 40% of the entire portfolio have an MSRP between $25 and $80. That's the largest portion of the portfolio, and an interesting purchasing strategy of the owner. I believe there is more variability in the returns of medium sets than either large or small sets, so to me this was a risky choice.

All in all, this is a collection that hasn't really taken off yet, but with the high concentration of modulars/exclusives, appears to have a nice upside.

Note - this attachment has more information than the one included in part one, and has some mistyped information corrected.