Houston Lego Lot Value - Worth $20K? (Part 1)

Another short blog post here. After seeing the incredibly large, unused Lego collection posted by JoshTX earlier in the day, I thought I would try to calculate the MSRP and current Brickpicker value to see how good of a deal this actually is.

Let me preface this by saying I hope nothing bad has happened that would force the owner of this portfolio to sell this great collection. I would never wish ill upon a fellow Brickpicker.

Here are the values I came up with:

Total MSRP on all sets: $18,747
Total Brickpicker value of the portfolio: $17,825

If the current owner of this was a savvy picker and only bought items at a discount, here is their cost basis at the following purchase discounts:

10% discount - $16,872
15% discount - $15,935
20% discount - $14,998

At this point in time, $13,500 would be a 10% haircut on the 20% discounted portfolio. While it's definitely a haircut, it's not as big of a haircut as you may think. That said, I still feel for the owner if he's forced to sell this.

As everyone knows, a buyer would be purchasing the future returns of the portfolio, and for the most part, this portfolio will be really start to mature early to mid next year. Here are the potential returns of the portfolio at the given ROI (from MSRP):

10% ROI - $20,622 ($1,875 increase)
20% ROI - $22,496 ($3,749 increase)
50% ROI - $28,121 ($9,374 increase)

I have attached an MS Excel file with the full spreadsheet I put together with the numbers. I will likely do a second short blog entry later tonight when I get a little more time to further breakdown the portfolio.