BrickIndex Spotlight: The Forbidden Forest (4865)

This entry of the BrickIndex Spotlight will focus its attention in a rather small set from one of the most popular themes of the past few years: The Forbidden Forest from Harry Potter.

The Forbidden Forest was a set that originally retailed for $ 12 in the USA, and for that price you got 4 cool minifigs (Voldemort, Hagrid, Harry and Narcissa Malfoy) as well as 64 pieces. Of these minifigures, the only one that is really exclusive (but not really expensive) is Narcissa Malfoy. Despite the fact the minifigures are not really that unique, the set was still a pretty good bang for your buck when all things are considered.

This set was retired around the end of last year, although you could still find it at some stores like Barnes and Noble. As far as its investment performance is concerned, the set has already more than doubled in value in a little over a 6 months, something that is not really surprising with sets within this price range. Let's now take a look at some of the trends this set has been displaying in over the past year or so.

The number of sets sold showcases the regular pattern that most sets follow, somewhat stable during the year with the huge spike in December. The really interesting data comes from the Values table, where you can clearly see the upward trend this set has been experience ever since it went EOL later 2012. It is pretty normal for sets to explode in value during the first few months after they are retired, and even after a couple of months of no growth this particular one is heading up once again.

This is a neat set that has already produced some pretty great percentage results for those that were wise enough to pick several while they were still available, but what about those of us who missed on this set, could it still have some more room to grow and make some decent profits?. Let's talk about that next.

The set itself is really not that interesting as it is basically just a LEGO built tree with some accessories, so that is certainly not going to be too appealing in the secondary market. The real stars here are the 4 minifigs that even if common (except Narcissa) are popular enough to carry this set into the $35 to $40 range in the medium to long term. What I find particularly interesting about this little set that I believe a lot of people will find appealing is that it gives the buyer access to some of the popular minifigs (Hagrid and Voldemort) that are only included in sets that at this point are much more expensive than this one. Someone with limited funds not willing to purchase figs individually will find this a nice alternative.

To conclude, I would definitely recommend investors to buy this set, but only if they are willing and able to buy several copies and wait a at least a year before getting rid of them. These small sets are only worth it to me if you are able to move a relatively large volume, as actual dollar profits tend to be quite small. If you already own the set, I would recommend holding onto it AT LEAST until this Holiday season, but a more desirable scenario would actually be selling them by the end of 2014 when most of the quick sellers have exited the market.

Recommendation: Hold/Buy