BrickIndex Spotlight: Taj Mahal 10189

This entry of our regular BrickIndex spotlight features a set that some of you may be surprised to find in the list at this point: the 10189 Taj Mahal.

The largest set (by piece count) that LEGO has ever produced has been retired for around three full years and has a current market value of almost $ 1,600 according to last month's data. It is quite amazing that an incredibly expensive set like this finds a place in the Top 20 (#19) fastest growing sets of the past 6 months, but with a growth of around 44% over the period, the Taj has rightfully earned its current spot.

I really don't know for sure, but the way LEGO has been releasing sets over the past few years has me thinking that this may very well be one of the last times we see a set with such a high MSRP and Piece count. I had some hopes for the Sidney Opera House to be very close to this model in both aspects just because the structure, in my opinion, was the perfect choice to bring back a crazy amount of pieces and a higher retail to cater to the AFOL community. The released model still does this to an extent, but I feel that it was a signal that LEGO is not thinking too much about releasing sets of this size anymore (MF and Taj).

Having said that, let's examine some of the performance numbers for this set over the last year:

As you can see, for a set of such high value there are several New and Used copies sold per month, suggesting strong demand. The holiday spike in sets sold is pretty clear in the second graph.

As far as market value is concerned, the set has grown over 40% in the past 6 months, a very significant percentage and dollar amount when you consider the price of the set. The growth in value since December has been quite admirable, going from $ 1,100 to almost $ 1,600 in that short period of time, a very nice return for such a short holding period. There is something that I want to note, however, and it is the fact that in the past 12 months the set has grown almost the exact same percentage as it has over the last six. Why is that? well, as you can see on the market value graph the December Effect is present once again bringing the set down almost a full $200 relative to its November value and back to the price it was selling for in the month of June 2012. Effectively, the set lost all its growth from the second semester of 2012 in one single month. Since then, it has recovered and broken the previous resistance level of around $ 1,300.

Now into my analysis of where the set might be going from this point forward. It is my belief that this set will continue growing over the next couple of years product of being the largest set ever and outstanding level of detail. Having said that, at this precise moment I can't really recommend anyone to purchase this set, as I think that a safer play for those interested in investing in the set would be to wait until the month of December where the model will probably dip in value once again to a price lower than it currently is. The December Effect is actually a quite helpful situation that retired set investors or even collectors can take advantage of in the case of these large sets.

As a result, my recommendation at this point is really split two ways. First, for those that plan on selling the set this year, doing so now or at least before the end of November would maximize your profits. Assuming the December Effect repeats this year again, as I think it will, you would be losing a significant amount of money by selling then. Second, those who own the set and are not considering selling just yet can probably be sure that they will continue to see the value of their holding grow at a decent pace into the end of 2014, in my opinion.

Recommendation: HOLD/SELL (7/11/2013)