Architecture: Will This Theme Rise to the Skies?

Well known towers, skyscrapers, residences, hotels and other famous landmarks. What do all these structures have in common? well, they all form part of their own dedicated LEGO theme: Architecture. A theme with origins going back to the 1960s, that was brought back to life by LEGO at some point in 2008 with the introduction of their very first mini model of a "real world" landmark, the Sears Tower (To be changed not much later to the Willis Tower).

For those of you out there that enjoy architecture as a hobby, or are professional architects, you probably know that it would have been very hard to choose a more popular building than the Sears Tower based on the category of architectural design. One of the most popular buildings in the world in that regard, it is my opinion that TLG chose very well what was the image they wanted to represent with this line of sets, and they took it one step further with the following release of the John Hancock Center, another extremely popular structure coming from a city known especially for its architectural attributes. That is quite a good 1-2 punch in my opinion.

So, after talking a little bit about designs and beautiful buildings, it seems to be pretty clear to who these theme was designed to appeal the most from the beginning: AFOLs. This is not to say that there are no younger fans that enjoy arches, columns, vaults, or just the plain height and curves of an skyscraper, because I am sure there are a lot that do including here in this forum, but that even considering them the large majority of Architecture sets purchasers end up being Adults. There is nothing wrong with that, since there are already a lot of themes dedicated to younger folks, but it makes it a little more special and gives it a feeling of...let's say maturity, to buying what most people out there would only consider toys.

Having said all that, it would probably not come as a surprise to you that most of the time the sets included in this line, especially those that are the smallest, tend to have a Price Per Piece (PPP) ratio that is substantially higher than those sets from other themes. It seems clear that TLG feels that adults will pay a premium for getting a more exclusive looking product that can look great in every office in the country, or home, as a display piece. Even more, to enhance even more this effect, the company decided to include somewhat large instructions booklet with a very nice design that resembles a small book, containing not only the traditional directions, but also several pages of high quality information and images about the structure a particular set is trying to replicate.

To conclude this section, and to go right into the individual set analysis before giving my projections for the overall theme, it is also important to note how much effort the LEGO Group put into making this set look as a completely different thing from the average LEGO theme just by taking a quick look at them. The packaging of the these sets is a nice black and sleek design with large white font letters that make it look as elegant as the structures they represent, and what is even more is the fact that usually, sets in this line do not share shelf space in the traditional LEGO area, but rather have their own black colored stand that makes them stand out and be considered a completely different kind of theme. In my opinion, LEGO did an excellent job differentiating this line from the rest of their portfolio.

In the interest of not extending myself too much more, too late right?, let's do an evaluation of every single set released under this theme and conclude giving you my overall impressions of the theme:

- 21000 Sears Tower

My Analysis: The first Architecture set to be released, the 21000 Sears Towers has already been retired, in theory. In practice, TLG just extended production of this set to reflect the name change to Willis Tower. It is interesting to note, however, that the original model with the old name has appreciated very nicely, especially when considering that you get the exact same thing in the new one. As said before, the Sears/Willis Tower is one of the most architecturally famous buildings in the world, and it is thanks to that that this is poised to be one of the best investments in the whole theme. This older model has already gone over retail pricing over 63 %, and I expect it to continue to rise and a slow pace until the newer Willis Tower retires as well.

- 21001 John Hancock Center

My Analysis: To me, this is the only actual set that LEGO has really retired from the Architecture theme, and it has proven to be an almost instant success shortly after going EOL. This set could still be found a couple of months before the holiday season of last year (2013), and since then it has gone over retail by almost 200%!, that is quite an impressive number. A 69 piece model, this set is currently selling for almost a dollar a piece.

Interesting to not about this set's performance is that, according to Brickpicker's data, it has managed to secure the number 2 spot on the BrickIndex, a list that contains the top performing LEGO sets over the past 6 months, only toppled by The Zombies. It is this fact that surprises me when I take a look at forum discussions and see a lot of discussion regarding The Zombies appreciation, while forgetting that this little set has performed just as well.

If this set maintains its current trend it will reach around $ 70 by next year. However, I do expect its CAGR to lower a little bit as the post EOL spike recedes, and maybe stabilize around 20 % or so, still a pretty good return.

- 21005 Fallingwater

My Analysis: One of the biggest and more detailed Architecture sets, this one makes for an impressive model once completed. Since the Fallingwater is currently in production, the negative numbers you see on the table above should not influence your decision on purchasing this set as an investment or not. Especially important to mention this when you see that this model is currently in the Top 25 Amazon Best Sellers, making it the highest placed set of the entire theme in the US!

Value Prediction: I don't see this set performing as well as the JHC in percentage terms, just because of its larger size and price, that will probably be unattractive to some of the same people that decided to jump and get the JHC since it was more affordable, and continues to be even after EOL. I would say that this set will price around $ 130 about 6 to 12 months after retirement but keep increasing from that figure steadily and into the high 100s in a couple of years.

- 21002 Empire State Building

My Analysis: If there is a set ready to replicate the success of the JHC, this is it. The Empire State Building is surely one of the most easily recognizable skyscrapers around the world, and despite not being the tallest, its design still amazes and interests people every single day. Around the same piece count as the JHC, The Empire State Buildings currently sits at # 74 in Amazon's 100 Best Sellers (LEGO), making it the third most popular set of the theme after Fallingwater and The White House, when using this list as a proxy for popularity.

Value Prediction: Look for this set to follow the footsteps of the JHC. It will quickly appreciate in value after going EOL and reach close to the same $ 60 a few months after. This is one landmark everyone wants to have, and don't be surprised if it actually surpasses the Hancock on the appreciation department.

- 21003 Seattle Space Needle

My Analysis: Another highly recognizable US landmark with a relatively low piece count and a nice low price. This set is currently another one on the Amazon Best Sellers Top 100 (LEGO), allowing us to make the assumption that it is one of the most popular LEGO sets out there. To me, one of the better builds on the whole theme (Mostly Technic), and paired with its extremely good design and display value make it one of the best choices out there for the Architecture investor.

Value Prediction: Again, based on sheer popularity, this set should break the $ 50 mark not long after retirement, probably in less than a year.

- 21004 Solomon Guggenheim Museum

My Analysis: A great looking model that makes justice to the original building. One of the most interesting designs for a museum worldwide, this particular set seems to be highly popular in Europe. Present in some of the Top 100 Amazon best sellers list (LEGO) in the old continent, the museum will probably have a larger appeal than the average Architecture set outside the US, giving investors willing to ship internationally an even better customer base. A little high on the price per piece department, even for Architecture sets, is one of this set's disadvantages.

Value Prediction: Not sure how much the high price per piece may influence the appreciation of this set after retirement, but if I had to guess I will say that the impact will be at least considerable. The popularity of this set abroad will probably help, but I don't see this set doubling in value in less than a year like most of the small sets in the theme. I would say around $ 65 within a year.

- 21006 The White House

My Analysis: Arguably the most well known building in the entire world, and one of the most popular as well. The White House LEGO model is as accurate as it can be while still made of LEGO bricks, with its nice design and the very cool looking tress and lawn surrounding it, making it a perfect display piece in any room or office.

The set is currently in place # 36 in the US Amazon Best Sellers (LEGO) list. and places in some of the other countries' lists, most notably in Spain #5 amd Canada #59). Even though these lists constantly change, this set shows up pretty consistently.

Value Prediction: One of the most safe investments in the whole theme, the iconic nature and significance of the building around the world will propel this set to what I believe to be one of the highest returns on investment of the whole Architecture theme. I expect this set to double in value within a year and a half after retirement and continue climbing until it matures probably around $ 150.

- 21011 Brandenburg Gate

My Analysis: Another icon in world history priced fairly when considering only raw number of pieces and not weight. Midsized, and as all models of the line, very accurate to the real thing. I won't say that this is necessarily a bad thing, but I was really surprised that this set is not in any of the Amazon Best Sellers' lists, not even in Germany. It has a somewhat low activity level on eBay as well, so I am tempted to say that there is the possibility for this set to be one of those highly sought after "sleeper" sets.

Value Prediction: The Brandenburg Gate represents a big part of the world's history in the years of WWII, but especially Europe's history and struggle during that time. I am not really convinced that this set is not going to be a popular one after retirement just because of the apparent bad signals of the current market, but rather expect it to become a hit in the future with its price going up with the help of what I think will be lower supply. You will probably see this set reach $ 55 a year after going EOL.

- 21007 Rockefeller Center

My Analysis: Another popular structure, but with a similar PPP problem as with the Guggenheim museum. This is by far not one of my favorite Architecture models. It is still a very accurate piece, just not one I am crazy about owning either for building or investing. The building is popular mostly here in the US, but it is just overshadowed by several other more prominent ones like the Empire State, Willis Tower, etc.

Value Prediction: In my opinion, this set will appreciate after EOL but not by as much or as fast as some of the other models we have discussed above. I actually think that the building's popularity is not as high as to creating a spike in value after retirement, but rather a slow increase over the years after. I see it going to $ 55 max. a year after it disappears from stores.

- 21010 Robie House

My Analysis: The largest of the models in the Architecture theme, this set is sure to be a winner after going EOL. The amount of pieces guarantees a lot of the small details that make the difference between a good set and a great one. Plus, you get a large number of the new dark red color that is not found in many sets, let alone in the quantity included here.

Value Prediction: The fact that this set has a PPP close to sets like the UCS Imperial Shuttle and other large sets, while only giving you thousands of mainly small pieces may serve as a deterrent or at least a speed bump in the way towards price appreciation. Still, a set of this size and detail will probably perform well in the secondary market, and I see it hitting $ 235 within the year.

- 21000 Willis Tower

My Analysis: this model is just a continuation of the 21000-1 Sears Tower release to reflect the name change the real building went through a couple of years ago. Nothing else worth mentioning that I didn't say on that model's analysis.

Value Prediction: Expect this set to follow the same path of the original 21000-1 and appreciate very well after retirement. What's more, the performance of these two equal sets will probably follow that of the John Hancock Center once there is no more Willis Tower on the market. I think that the original Sears Tower LEGO will get to the $ 60 range a lot faster than this one, since it has already been "retired", but the Willis variation will probably be close to that same number just a couple of months after it is discontinued, maybe just a couple of dollars cheaper.

- 21009 Farnsworth House

My Analysis: A really interesting and good looking model, this is definitely one of my favorites despite it not being one of the most well known structures of the line. The detail is amazing, the white plates make the set look very nice and as if it were only one big plate, plus the detailing inside of the house with the small brick used to replicate seating areas and the kitchen is just amazing looking. One of the best models of the whole theme, in my opinion.

Value Prediction: despite not being one of the most easily recognizable structures, especially outside the US or other than real architecture fans, this set will perform just because of its unique design and detailing. I see it going above $ 80 within a year after retirement.

- 21008 Burj Khalifa

My Analysis: This is my least favorite model of the Architecture line, and apparently a number of other LEGO fans around the world agree with me, based on the reviews and ratings on LEGO S@H. There are two main things that bother me about this model, one being that despite having more than 200 pieces, more than 50% of those are the round 1x1 brick. It just makes the build more repetitive than any of the other models of the line. The other problem, and a more important one, is that the model itself is very unstable, since moving the set or the slightest touch can start to make the round bricks fall apart. The model looks accurate, but these two things are issues I really don't want to deal with.

Value Prediction: I would think that the instability issue and the lack of variety on the pieces department will cause buyers to think they are not getting a lot of value for their money with this set. In my opinion, this will under perform the rest of the theme, but still increase in value to around $ 32 or $ 33 by the end of its first year of retirement.

- 21012 Sidney Opera House

My Analysis: This is the only case in the whole Architecture theme I feel the need to say the model does not replicate the real thing in the best way possible. The model looks blocky and is not as high quality as the majority of the other designs. A sad thing really, considering that the Sidney Opera House is another of those structures that is extremely easy to recognize by almost anyone in the world. I just think that LEGO could have done a better job with this one.

Value Prediction: Despite my doubts about this set, the reviews in LEGO S@H are mostly good ones, so I would assume that it is a popular set. Even more, the structure in which it is based is one of the most popular in the world, and that will more than likely help its performance after going EOL. If the buyers have a better view of this set than I do, as it seems is the case, I will say that it will probably follow the most popular models in this theme and get close to doubling in value in a little more than a year to a year and a half.

- 21013 Big Ben

My Analysis: As LEGO says, this is the most famous clock tower in the entire world. What's more, the model is really nice looking and detailed for the amount of pieces and is one of the few Architecture sets that has consistently been selling for above retail even while still in production. Another positive aspect is the fact that it was one of the most popular sets of the line in the month of December, selling close to 190 sets during that month alone!

Value Prediction: Famous landmark, great design, this set will definitely go over $ 50 a short time after being retired.

- 21014 Villa Savoye

My Analysis: If we use eBay activity as a proxy for popularity of LEGO sets, this is easily one of the least popular of the Architecture line, since from January to March, only 5 new copies of this model have been sold on the auction site. This is particularly impressive since I think this is one of the best looking models of the whole line, and a very different type of build than the other ones. Important to note is that, even though in the US this set does not have that much activity, it is present in several of the European Amazon Best Sellers Top 100 lists. So, it would seem very clear that the popularity of this set right now is very high in Europe, while not that much here in the US.

To me, this is a good thing, and makes me feel sure that this will be one of those "sleeper" sets I was talking about before. One can probably assume that the domestic market buyers want to get all the most well known landmarks/buildings first before getting to the Savoye, but there may be a point when it is too late to do and they will have to source them from the secondary market.

Value Prediction: One of the best candidates for the sleeper set nomination, this one may very well get to $ 100 or more a couple of months after its first year in retirement.

- 21016 Sungnyemun

My Analysis: Only the second landmark/structure from the Asian continent, this set has been on the retiring soon list of LEGO for a couple of weeks now, and it is practically retired at this point. One of the better looking sets, the Sungnyemun has already started to go up in value, and will probably continue to do so over the next couple of weeks.

Value Prediction: The set is currently experience the EOL price bump, and has reached a CAGR of close to 20 % in a very short period of time. Expect this trend to continue for the rest of this year.

- 21017 Imperial Hotel

My Analysis: This set was just released a little over a month ago. Besides being the second largest set of the Architecture theme, there is not really enough information at this point to go into more detail.

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If you have made it this far, congratulations. We have travelled all over the world analyzing each and every one of the current Architecture themed sets along with me giving you a small appreciation of where I expect each set to be shortly after retirement. Let's try now to wrap things up.

I would like to give you a short summary about the strengths and weaknesses I perceive this particular theme has, before going into a short conclusion about where I think the theme as a whole will be going.

Strengths:

• AFOL oriented theme
• Recreations of important buildings and landmarks
• Very detailed designs
• Several different sizes and price points
• Inclusion of informative booklets in each set
• Great display pieces
• Highly collectable

Weaknesses:

• Higher priced than the average LEGO set
• Some models are not as well known or popular as others
• Longer production runs that the average LEGO theme (so far)

So as you can see, from my point of view this theme is a very solid investment choice that, other than a few disadvantages, offers some great potential for the future. Will this theme rise as high as some of the skyscrapers it has replicated? I would most definitely say yes.

Thanks for reading.