An Analysis of the Taj Mahal - In LEGO and in Life

The Taj Mahal is the biggest official LEGO product in existence, and one of my favorite LEGO models. Though the Taj Mahal doesn’t have a price tag of other large sets, such as the close rival 10179 Millennium Falcon, it has managed to keep its place piece count wise, for the last 5 years…

The real Taj Mahal was built under the authority of “Mughal emperor Shah Jahan in memory of his third wife, Mumtaz Mahal,”^ and is often referred to as a great example of Muslim architecture. In the same way, the LEGO model has excellently captured the size, and wonder of the real thing. Let’s look at two of the Taj Mahal in LEGO, and in life:

There are a few more prominent differences between the two structures, including some of the dimensions. There is a smaller gap between the 4 corner towers and the main building in the LEGO model, and the LEGO model is slightly taller in proportion to its base than it is in India. Of course, there are other differences, such as the more jagged structure of the dome that is near-impossible to re-create with LEGO bricks, but overall, we are looking at a very clever copy.

The Taj Mahal is probably one of the proudest LEGO models in existance, and was part of the pinnacle of LEGO products, in 2007-2008, along with the 10179 Millennium Falcon. It is both huge, iconic, and probably the king of the Advanced Models theme.

Let’s not judge a set by it’s box design, and look at the reviews of LEGO fans who have built the set. The LEGO Shop allows customers to rate sets out of 5 in the following criteria: Value for Money, and Play Experience, both fairly general, but specific at the same time. Out of the 88 reviews, there were 5 reviews giving the set 3 stars or less, a huge success on the LEGO Group’s part, with 94.3% of LEGO fans who built this set being fairly satisfied with it, giving the set 4 or more stars overall.

The Set…
The 10189 Taj Mahal retailed for $299.99, but was discounted, including LEGO S@H, to $249.99. Unlike many LEGO Store discounts, this sale was advertised so widely, that it made it into the Spring 2010 LEGO Catalog, a sign that it didn’t live up to LEGO’s expectations.

LEGO Shop Product Summary/Description:

Build the breathtaking Taj Mahal!
The famous Taj Mahal jewel of India is known all over the globe for its incredible beauty and elegance. Now you can recreate this modern wonder of the world for yourself! Designed for experienced builders, the LEGO Taj Mahal model features advanced building techniques, rare elements and colors, and realistic details of architecture. With over 5,900 pieces, the Taj Mahal makes an awesome addition to any LEGO collection!

• Amazingly detailed model features the base, minarets, domes, finials, arches and stairs in the front
• Assembles in 3 sections for easier transportation
• The most elements ever featured in one set!
• Measures over 20" (51cm) wide and over 16" (41cm) tall

http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Taj-Mahal-10189

As the product description reads, the Taj Mahal can be separated into 3 parts to make it easier to move around, that is, easier to move without breaking or mutating. The three sections are as follows: square base, building, and dome.

Investment
Though this might not be the most exciting aspect of the article, it is very important, nevertheless. When the Taj Mahal was purchasable at S@H, it had a stunningly low Price Per Brick ratio of only $0.05. This is largely due to the sheer quantity of the same brick that is needed to construct the whole model. In fact, there are 12 pieces that are found 100 times or more in this set!

The Taj Mahal is one of the elite LEGO sets to be worth over $1,500. Though it is very often overlooked by it’s rival for the most pieces, the 10179 Millennium Falcon, it is still a gem of gems. Let’s look at the sale prices of a new version of the Taj Mahal
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The average total sale price of a brand new Taj Mahal is ~$1627.34, and slightly higher than the BrickPicker value of $1,593.73 because the data is from May 2013. Just looking at the current trends of the 10189, a great time to pick up the Taj Mahal was in December 2012. Now that it looks like its value won’t go anywhere near $1,000, but a good price would be about $1,300-$1,400. Now let’s look at complete used sets:
(This chart is a little small. To enlarge, click on the actual chart.)

The average total sale price of a used 10189 Taj Mahal is ~$811.12, so a good price to pick one up would be about $800 if possible, though it is hard to come by sets at that price, including instructions. It is interesting that we see a decline in value of used sets, but then we have a very strong comeback, that is not yet on BrickPicker, to the mid-to-high $800’s.

Predictions
Of course, one of the most fun parts of being an investor is guessing and predicting the direction a set will take, and how far it will go. My educated guess is that a new set will see its value continue its strong journey of just about 50% per 6 months, based on the trends of the past 5 years, and used copies will hit $950 by the holidays, and increase at a rate of about 5-10% per 6 months.

Thanks for reading!!

^Quoted from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taj_Mahal.