9468 Vampyre Castle: Sucking the Life Out of LEGO Investors

So its no secret that the 9468 Vampyre Castle has a big following on this site and a lot of people have stashed them away hoping for the killer gains that all the awesome Lego castle's seem to bring. Around November, we were all finishing buying out Toys R Us, the Lego Shops near us (on clearance), and Amazon while salivating over what was to come. Suddenly, Toys R Us orders somewhere near a million for each store to restock for a huge sale. The Vampyre Castle (9468) then showed up on ToysRUs.com as "Our Exclusive" and the debate and panic ensued. Should we return all the sets we bought? How long more will it be around? Will it affect the investment value? Is it worth buying anymore as they go on sale?

All of these are very legitimate questions. So I decided to write up a best and worst case scenario, some predictions, and some advice on what to do and think about this set. All of this is purely speculation - please do not assume I "know" anymore than one you. Just offering my opinions on the subject - as that's all we have at the moment.

The Set's Original Investment Potential

Obviously, no one knows what this set would have done if it had disappeared and fully retired as we expected it in December like the Helm's Deep. However, we have a good idea where this set was headed looking at what was going on with eBay during that time period. Here is a look at where this set was in November:

BrickPicker Value for the 9468 Vampyre Castle...October - $108.29

BrickPicker Value for the 9468 Vampyre Castle... November - $102.32

Last 10 eBay Listings(average) in November for the 9468 Vampyre Castle - $108.90

So this set was already selling above retail without being retired. The end of November was right in the middle of the TRU 79.99$ sale (when they restocked at each store mysteriously) and this set was still holding its value fairly well. There was a ton of demand as well with around 150 being sold in October to November. This set was starting to look like it could make it to $175 or $200 by next year. But the TRU restock scared a lot of us. Argument ensued with some still on board, others just slowing down, and others yelling "return!" and retreating from the set.

What Has Been the Effect So Far?

I was really curious to see what the "Real" value of this set was after Christmas. We all know sets inflate during Christmas and can sometimes make us think a set is worth a lot more than it actually is. I consider a sets "Real" value (obviously you can get a lot more for it) to be what it receives from 7 day auctions that don't end at night and don't only have one bid. I took the last 10 from this set after January (they are still selling quite frequently) following these rules:

Vampyre Castle 9468 Average Sold Price: $101.45

Honestly it doesn't look all that bad! There were several auctions with quite a few bids and there were more than 10 sold as Buy It Now auctions as well, so there is still a great demand for the set even as most people lick their wounds from the Christmas season. On the other hand, it's possible retirement may have alerted a lot of people that wanted the set and never bought it. Those may be grabbing them now somewhat slowly simulating the panic buying we normally see with a set's retirement. Lots of questions...

Worst Case Scenario

If you have  a lot of these (I am in the middle at 10 - I sold 6 during Christmas as I restocked from TRU) you may want to cry after this. Feel free to skip on to to the next section to keep your day going great! The Vampyre Castle seems to be a TRU exclusive now. For lack of Halloween sets, TRU (At least in the US) decides to keep it for several years seeing that the LegoShop is now out of it and it alone is the retailer carrying the set. Boosting TRU, people cannot find the set anywhere else and start paying $129.99 at TRU keeping the set there for the long haul as one of it's best sellers. Eventually the set finally does retire without any fanfair or panic at all 2-3 years after expected. The price takes a slight jump as people realize it's gone, but stalls quickly as the demand and love for the set has started to die out as people forget about it and the theme. The price stays right around $120 as investors finally decide to cut their loses and dump all of their sets to just try and get the money they paid out of them. The fear of God is put into every investor that ever sees TRU restock a set near retirement remembering this as a huge hit against Lego investing everywhere.

Best Case Scenario

Obviously this one is going to be much more preferred by most of us here: Though TRU restocked the set in late November, it exhausted all stock in doing so. They have one more big sale, marking it down to $80 again and we all grab 2-3 more just for good measure. Suddenly, with the swiftness of the Wolverine Chopper, the set is gone. Panic ensues immediately as investors and collectors realize the set just disappeared.  The set jumps to $150 in a mere few weeks on Ebay and approaches $200 by the end of the year, allowing all of us to double our money within just a short period of time.

What's Realistic?

I for one believe that, while this became a TRU exclusive, its still about to be gone. First off, a few of these sets, the Scientist 9465 and the Mummy 9462 have both already retired. This one is obviously next as it has somehow been discounted to $25 on the Lego website though already being out of stock. It has officially retired in a few other regions as well.

ToysRUs may keep it on for a while as their exclusive, but the set is still selling at a pretty good pace. None of the 3 TRU's around me have restocked as it has started to dwindle. They aren't moving particularly fast at $130, but I think they will still be sold out soon enough. All of these other sets in this line are listed as TRU exclusives as well, and none of them have been restocked in a long time at all the TRU's I have been to lately. The Vampyre Castle is the only one at the majority of them that is left.

Even if it does, the last several months of data on Ebay has proved that people love this set. I think the fact that Lego has not indicated doing more Monster Fighters almost helps this one's cause. It will not be redone and is still the only "haunted castle" we really have in the line. The Haunted House sticking around bodes well for this set as well - people can not forget about the theme if the best set of it is still in stores (and a display in a lot of them as well).

Though I would agree Toys R Us has put a slight dent in this sets investment value, the lack of other competing sets on the current market, or even the secondary market, this set is still a winner. You are taking a chance it will be around for another year, but I just can't see it continuing past that. So far it hasn't put too much of a dent in the sets value, and especially if you got these for $80 or less, you aren't taking a huge gamble as I don't think there is anyway that this set doesn't hit $130 or $140 the moment it finally is gone.

My recommendation is to hold tight. I don't recommend buying the set at retail or over (if you see it for $80, jump!), but I think the ones you have should stay with you. The set is still a big winner in my eyes and I don't think this completely changes that. As we are currently seeing with the Fire Brigade, even with the most crazy stocked set there is, we are still in the midst of a time where Lego is so popular that the panic buying of a set that seems to be flooding the market can still make a good buck.

Just be patient and believe. Box them up and don't look at them. You will feel better about just getting your money out of them in the long run than if you sell now, and watch it soar into the sky shortly after.