There have been many recent articles, all over the web, in local papers and on the radio. They're saying that LEGO investing is better than gold. It's sensationalist. It excites the imagination. It sounds easy. These articles point up the sets that have increased in value many times above their initial costs. Dreamers sweep store shelves expecting instant returns and easy money. Conventional wisdom says that you'll never lose money on LEGO, it will always be worth at least what you bought it for. What if it's not?
I'd like to take a journey through the dusty backrooms of stores and the dark corners of investor's storage areas to look at some themes that proved to be so unpopular that if their demand and value hasn't remained flat, it actually got worse. These are themes that got the same market push as every other theme, but failed to capture the target audience.
Let's take a look at some licensed themes from recent history:
The first theme that we'll take a look at is Prince of Persia. Disney's attempt to turn a video game franchise into a profitable film franchise. LEGO released 6 Sets consisting of 7569 Desert Attack, 7570 The Ostrich Race, 7571 The Fight for the Dagger, 7572 Quest Against Time, 7573 Battle of Alamut, and 20017 Dagger Trap Polybag. All combined, this theme sold at retail for a total of $190.95 (Pre Tax of course,) the current value of these sets averages to $178.75. That's a return of 94% of the initial investment. It would be worse if not for the Polybag, which I calculated at retail of free because I couldn't find any data about cost. (So, I assumed it was free.)
The second licensed theme that we'll discuss is The Lone Ranger. (Personally, I loved these sets and wanted more. {if I could get them on steep discount.}) Disney released the Lone Ranger to poor reception and poor reviews. The days of the Western might be dead, and this theme sure did seem like a nail in the coffin. This theme consisted of 6 sets and 2 Polybags. They are 79106 Cavalry Builder set (How they can be cavalry without horses I don't know. I guess Artillery is confusing,) 79107 Comanche Camp, 79108 Stagecoach Escape, 79109 Colby City Showdown, 79110 Silver Mine Shootout, 79111 Constitution Train Chase, 30260 Lone Ranger's Pump Car, and 30261 Tonto's Campfire. The combined retail total before tax is $291.92 but when I get the average sold price for the last 6 months on Bricklink they sold for a grand total of $283. Slightly better than Prince of Persia with 97% remaining value.
It's probably not LEGO's fault that these themes died on the vine. Some might argue that if the source material had been better received, there would be greater demand on the aftermarket. It's a fair argument, but you could also point out that if LEGO had done a better job on the sets, they might have succeeded despite the failures of the original properties. If you think it's the fault of the source material, let's take a look at a LEGO owned theme that they got very wrong.
For our non licensed theme we'll look at the horror of Galaxy Squad. It is a continuation/expansion of the classic Space theme. Science Fiction has been popular for a long time, and little boys have always wanted to be an astronaut and kill space bugs. This theme had a whopping 10 sets and 2 polybags. The sets are 70700 Space Swarmer, 70701 Swarm Interceptor, 70702 Warp Stinger, 70703 Star Slicer, 70704 Vermin Vaporizer, 70705 Bug Obliterator, 70706 Crater Creeper, 70707 CLS-89 Eradicator Mech, 70708 Hive Crawler, 70709 Galactic Titan, with polybags 30230 Mini Mech, and 30231 Space Insectoid. That's about 4000 pieces of fun right there. All of those sets together would cost $479.38 at retail before tax. How much is Bricklink's average sold price for the entire series? $320. You're losing a full third of your initial investment if you bought these at retail and sold them for the average price.
Are these the only themes that have lost money? By no means. Early predictions are putting the future of Chima in the toilet. I'll let those of you inclined to do so research other past themes to see which ones should cause speculators to run for the hills.
For those people who jumped in head first, thinking that investing in LEGO would be like printing money, this should serve as a sobering wake-up call. If you had bought any of these themes at retail, you'd have saved yourself time by handing $5 bills to random people on the street, or better yet, save the money by burying it in a coffee can in your backyard.
With every success story and humble brag about the times when someone guessed right, there's someone cursing the hundreds or thousands of dollars tied up in inventory, eating storage space. What can you do with all those Ostrich Races or Crater Creepers? I hear Toys for Tots accepts any toy that is unopened and unwrapped. You could break them down for parts, but that's a whole different headache.
The average values that I list are not a complete indication of the value of these sets. Looking at Bricklink, many have sold or are currently available for notably less than the average. On the other hand, some bought these sets at significantly below average pricing. Prince of Persia has 2 unique animals (ostrich and camel) that have some demand on the parts market. Some people are making money on these sets. Smart money avoided these themes from the beginning, most even avoided them on clearance. Some, however, are wondering if it's possible to use these sets to make storage for their moneymaking investment. If you haven't thought about it, even if you sold at the listed average price, the amount of your return is at least 7% lower due to fees.
If you're buying LEGO for investment and you don't know or don't care about the themes that you are buying, chances are that you're throwing money away.
Edited by thoroakenfelder
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