Do Expensive LEGO Sets Lose Value in December?

Biggest thing I notice is several retired sets would have made great investments in 2013 despite their inflated cost over rrp. I had no interest in a $900 Grand Carousel back then but it would have been a great investment.  

It could've been a fluke year.  The price variances on those seem to be within the margin of error of price fluctuations.  As you can tell, overall over the last couple of years, pretty much everything has gone up in value.

I wouldn't be surprised too though that the reason some of these super expensive lego sets drop in price a bit, is only because people have their money focused on other things versus buying a $2000+ lego set.

41 minutes ago, citymorgue said:

It could've been a fluke year.  The price variances on those seem to be within the margin of error of price fluctuations.  As you can tell, overall over the last couple of years, pretty much everything has gone up in value.

I wouldn't be surprised too though that the reason some of these super expensive lego sets drop in price a bit, is only because people have their money focused on other things versus buying a $2000+ lego set.

Completely agree with both statements. As @marcandre noted the most interesting piece of information is how much these sets have increased in value over the last 3 years. I literally had to go back and double check to make sure sets like the Grand Carousel had done as well as the table showed. Maybe investing in a SSD right now is not such a bad idea...

Unquestionably, the older expensive sets do sell for less (on avg) in Dec.

Between the collectors who take a seasonal break in buying for themselves, some collectors who need to sell that rare set in order to get funds for holiday shopping, and the influx of Seasonal sellers who plan on selling set XYZ for as much as they could get (regardless of its price), this inevitably has a negative short term effect.

What people need to keep in mind that these expensive sets did not suddenly become less valuable in Dec (regardless of the data). It should remind us that statistics can be deceiving (especially when there is limited data within a time frame) - They simply don't always show the reality of what is actually happening.

Check the charts on camelcamelcamel. Very common for Lego prices to crater Dec-Jan. Interestingly this is the inverse of Megabloks price action where Christmas is the best time to take profits.

Recently retired exclusives tend to peak in Dec/Jan thanks to the post EOL boom so it all depends on the timeframe since EOL and the quantity actually sold. Maybe Eiffel tower loses value in December but there are 10 times more real sales.

I'd be curious to see this same data continue through Jan. Do these items experience a bounce back post holidays?

Another thing to look at would be the volume of sets available or sold in the different time periods. The general thought that there is more money available during the holiday season, so more sellers put these sets for sale at this time of year.  

Or like it has been said before sellers wanting to sell, so they have money to spend on their holiday gifts.  Or wanting to clear some inventory before the end of the year.

I've paid attention to such trends unofficially for several years as well, and my 2 cents is this:

While the price guide is a great tool to have, it is still just too unreliable to perform particularly meaningful analysis with. I would love to be part of the filtering process to eliminate anomalous and bogus sold listings from the eBay data, partially to help satisfy the curiosity I have as to why some sets make massive sudden plunges and peaks, and why some return to "normal" and some don't. High-value sets are not immune to this effect.

Nevertheless, there is certainly more OPPORTUNITY to pluck "bargain" "elite" sets during the holiday season, AND soon afterward. Less the latter this year, but true nonetheless. As others have said, the combination of higher supply and possible lower buying competition means lower prices. Whatever "hot items" hold the spotlight during said season certainly seem to pull spending attention away from older, established sets of all sizes. I'm still kicking myself for not nabbing a crisp sealed 10026 for $160 one January when it was worth $350. Plenty of other examples exist, but there ya go. I'd guess more deals like that pop up during those two months than the rest of the year combined.

1 hour ago, Alpinemaps said:

I'd be curious to see this same data continue through Jan. Do these items experience a bounce back post holidays?

Good point. I really have no idea why I stopped in December, that would definitely be an interesting thing to see. Maybe I can add it at some point this week.

1 hour ago, gobuffs98 said:

Another thing to look at would be the volume of sets available or sold in the different time periods. The general thought that there is more money available during the holiday season, so more sellers put these sets for sale at this time of year.  

Or like it has been said before sellers wanting to sell, so they have money to spend on their holiday gifts.  Or wanting to clear some inventory before the end of the year.

That's kind of what I did back in 2013. Then, we had eBay data about quantity sold per month, so one could see the peaks in the holiday season. Unfortunately, it seems eBay does not provide us with that data anymore.

Last year was a fairly good year economically for the United States.  I think that played a major role in why it didn't follow the patterns of previous years.   I suspect next year you will see a similar pattern, even if we are only part way through the year, I think we will keep on a good path this year.  Could see another good banner holiday season.  But, next year?  Well.. you never know.

52 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

Last year was a fairly good year economically for the United States.  I think that played a major role in why it didn't follow the patterns of previous years.   I suspect next year you will see a similar pattern, even if we are only part way through the year, I think we will keep on a good path this year.  Could see another good banner holiday season.  But, next year?  Well.. you never know.

There has always been a bit of a disconnect between the economy and LEGO sales/performance.