Anatomy of a LEGO Investment Loser: The Bottom 50

We here at BrickPicker have often been accused of being too pro-LEGO investor.  There are some Bearish LEGO collectors out there and they have let me know on several occasions that we never post about the negatives of LEGO investing.  While many of you know that we are not shills for LEGO, there is still a silent minority of LEGO collectors and investors that think we promote the little ABS plastic bricks too much.  Well, today, that changes.  I am here to talk about the WORST PERFORMING LEGO SETS over the past six months...let's call them the Bottom 50.

  Basically, the “Bottom 50” is the BrickIndex, but in reverse.  The BrickIndex shows the top performing LEGO sets based on CAGR values over the past six months.  The chart below shows the worst performing LEGO sets based on CAGR values of all sets in our database.  Let's take a look at the CAGR Cellar Dwellers...

  THE BOTTOM 50...AKA...THE WORST PERFORMING LEGO SETS

  As the reader can see, there is quite a variety of sets and themes that make up the Bottom 50.  From Atlantis sets to World Racers, there is a mix of small and large, low and high priced sets.  The one definitive theme that looks extremely weak is the Racers theme.  Even worse is the World Racers theme.  This theme can be considered the ultimate investment loser in my book.  Fifteen out of the Bottom 50 LEGO sets, or 30%, are made up with these four wheeled wastes of your LEGO investment dollar.  While they might be somewhat popular among kids, they certainly have no value in the secondary LEGO market.  Avoid them like the plague!  As for the other remaining 35 LEGO sets in the Bottom 50, the Atlantis, Pharaoh's Quest, Toy Story, Prince of Persia, Bionicle and STAR WARS themes make up the majority of what's left.  The Bionicle and STAR WARS themes, while present in the Bottom 50, shouldn't be considered bad investments by any means.  With their sheer number of sets, there was destined to be a couple of poor performers in the bunch.  That leaves the unpopular Atlantis, Toy Story and Prince of Persia themes to stink up the joint.
 

  So why are these sets so unpopular in the secondary LEGO market?  Well, the Racers for one have been around for 10+ years, so obviously they have quite a following and were popular at retail, so why are they poor investments?  Well, not all Racer sets are poor investments to start.  The 8653 Enzo Ferrari and 8461 Williams F1 Team Racer have appreciated into the $400 range, which is not chump change.  There are many other positive examples in the Racers theme.  I guess it boils down to lack of minifigures and many small, repetitive and uninteresting sets.  That's my guess.  I can't say that about the Atlantis and Pharaoh's Quest themes.  They have some of the coolest minifigures and sets on the planet in my opinion.  Sharkmen, flying mummies, giant squids, scorpions and crabs, submarines, ancient ruins...all creative and fun stuff.  Same goes for the Toy Story sets.  I love the minifgures and the sets are all very well done and do a great job of portraying the actual iconic movies.  Prince of Persia, on the other hand, have decent LEGO sets, but the actual movie was so bad that it affected set popularity.  Even a successful Prince of Persia video game line couldn't counteract the negative effects of the awful movie.  The one thing I don't understand with the Prince of Persia sets is how “can't” the LEGO theme be successful?  I mean each LEGO box has a picture of Jake Gyllenhaal on it.  That has to account for some increase in value...right?  LOL.
 

  Besides the repetitive and uncreative nature of the Racers and World Racers theme, the other themes and sets don't really have any main characteristics that will designate them as “losers.”  They are a mix of all types of sets and themes, some with minifigures, some without minifigures.  Some sets are from licensed themes, others are not.  Some sets are based on classic movies, others are based on forgettable ones, while others are based on no movies at all.  Some are large sets, others small.  Of the Bottom 50 LEGO sets, there are seven sets that made me want to further examine the sets to see why they are in that position.  Here they are...The Sucky Seven...
 

Year Released	Pieces/ Minifigures	MSRP (US$)	Current Value(US$)	% Return Last Year	% Return From MSRP	CAGR(%)	Over/Under Mean CAGR
7591 CONSTRUCT-A-ZURG
2010	118/1	24.99	10.24	-17.02	-59.92	-26.21	-37.2
LEGO.COM DESCRIPTION: The Evil Emperor Zurg is out to conquer the galaxy!
BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: The Toy Story theme is one of the worst of all LEGO themes and it's really hard to figure why.  The Toy Story(s) movie was a classic and the LEGO sets did the movie justice, with accurate looking sets that matched movie scenes and characters very closely.  The minifigures are awesome in my opinion.  Take this set, the Construct-A-ZURG for instance.  It looks exactly like the movie character...right down to the ball shooter.  The purple color is refreshing and mixes well with the red.  A real pleasure to look at and to build(Yes, I have one.)  The playability is also fantastic.  This set DOES NOT deserve to be the worst of the worst.  The one negative was the MSRP, which was high, but now you can probably buy one cheap.  Makes an excellent display set as well.

Year Released	Pieces/ Minifigures	MSRP (US$)	Current Value(US$)	% Return Last Year	% Return From MSRP	CAGR(%)	Over/Under Mean CAGR
8078 PORTAL OF ATLANTIS
2010	1007/7	99.99	63.78	-5.69	-36.21	-13.92	-24.91
LEGO.COM DESCRIPTION: The portal to the lost city of Atlantis has been discovered! Getting through it will be the diver’s greatest challenge yet! The divers must get past hidden traps, shark guardian statues that come alive, Squid and Shark Warriors, and the Portal Emperor before unlocking the portal with the five Atlantis treasure keys. Includes 7 minifigures: 3 divers, 1 Portal Emperor, 1 Squid Warrior, 1 Shark Warrior, 1 skeletonFeatures all 5 Atlantis treasure keys -- green, blue, yellow, red and orange Divers must beware of the hidden traps! Turn a treasure key into the keystone to open the portal to Atlantis! Shark castle measures 18" (46cm) wide and over 12” (32cm) tall
BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: Atlantis sets, like their desert relatives, the Pharaoh's Quest sets, just don't get any love and this amazes me.  The sets are colorful and creative, the minifigures are some of the coolest I've encountered, the sets are a good mix of buildings, vehicles and creatures.  Earlier versions of the Atlantis theme, like Aquaraiders and Aquazone, haven't fared any better over time.  I guess LEGO fans just don't like water or underwater themes(or desert themes for that matter).  Too bad really.  The Atlantis sets have a lot to offer.  This set in particular, offers over 1000 pieces, a radical shark building/temple and some nasty little minifigures.  The trick with these sets was never to pay retail prices for them.  Discounts are/were always available on these sets and if you start(ed) at a lower buy in price, you can make some money off of these sets.  Atlantis just doesn't deserve being one of the worst themes in my opinion, but I guess I am in the minority.

Year Released	Pieces/ Minifigures	MSRP (US$)	Current Value(US$)	% Return Last Year	% Return From MSRP	CAGR(%)	Over/Under Mean CAGR
7754 HOME ONE MON CALIMARI CRUISE
2009	789/6	109.99	71.23	-1.37	-35.24	-10.29	-21.28
LEGO.COM DESCRIPTION: Aboard the Mon Calamari Star Cruiser Home One , the Rebel Alliance plans its final assault against the Empire's second Death Star. Voted for by fans to celebrate the 10th anniversary of LEGO Star Wars , the famous Rebel flagship features a command center and briefing room with Death Star 'œhologram,' a launch and repair hangar, a Green Squadron A-wing starfighter with removable engine and firing flick-missiles, and the first-ever LEGO minifigures of Admiral Ackbar, Rebel leader Mon Mothma, General Lando Calrissian, General Madine, a Mon Calamari officer and a Green Squadron A-wing pilot. Move the levers and gears to prepare the A-wing for takeoff or to rotate Admiral Ackbar's command chair! Includes 6 minifigures: Admiral Ackbar, MonMothma, General Lando Calrissian, General Madine, a Mon Calamari officer and a Green Squadron A-wing pilot! Set features Mon Calamari command center, repair hangar and an A-wing starfighter! Command center and repair hanger measure a combined 17" (43cm) long and 9" (23cm) wide
BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: The set with the longest name and not much else...LOL.  Only kidding.  I never liked the name of this set.  Hard to remember.  Maybe that's why people don't care for it.  A Toys R Us “exclusive.”  So much for exclusives.  This set is just an outright disappointment.  Maybe on the pricey side for the piece count, but nothing too high.  Six minifigures.  STAR WARS set.  Interesting display set with a lot of playability.  Not the greatest set, but it shouldn't be in the Bottom 50 in my opinion.  I've seen much, much worse.  I guess Admiral Ackbar and Mon Mothma are not winning any popularity contests.

Year Released	Pieces/ Minifigures	MSRP (US$)	Current Value(US$)	% Return Last Year	% Return From MSRP	CAGR(%)	Over/Under Mean CAGR
7573 BATTLE OF ALUMUT
2010	821/7	79.99	58.28	-3.4	-27.14	-10.02	-21.01
LEGO.COM DESCRIPTION: Battle in, on and around the mighty Alamut Castle!
BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: The iconic Prince of Persia theme...LOL.  Well, maybe not iconic.  Anyway...this is the largest(...and largest usually means a good investment with LEGO sets) of the Prince of Persia theme and has a decent amount of pieces and minifigures.  While this is no Harry Potter set, or even Pirates of the Caribbean set for that matter, it's really not worthy of being so unloved in my opinion.  This set was readily available well below MSRP for the longest time.  You can still find some good deals on this set, even if you just want to part it out.  Maybe now is the time to buy one of these sets.  It went up 1.67% last month.  Maybe it is a late bloomer.   Don't forget, the LEGO box art is hot with Jake Gyllenhaal on it!!!  ;-)

Year Released	Pieces/ Minifigures	MSRP (US$)	Current Value(US$)	% Return Last Year	% Return From MSRP	CAGR(%)	Over/Under Mean CAGR
5974 GALACTIC ENFORCER
2009	825/7	99.99	71.72	14.92	-28.27	-7.97	-18.96
LEGO.COM DESCRIPTION: Intergalactic emergency broadcast! The sinister Slizer has stolen the statue of the first LEGO Space astronaut'¦and he's planning to break Kranxx out of galactic jail, too! Blast off in the mighty Galactic Enforcer and use its incredible five-way split function to protect the blast-away quad prison pods and capture the space-crooks. Includes 'statue' of 1st LEGO Space astronaut plus 5 minifigures: Slizer, Kranxx and 3 Space Police Officers Also includes Space Police mini quad, alien strikecraft and minifigure accessories Galactic Enforcer splits to reveal smaller space vehicles Lift hinged door and play inside the forensic lab and questioning area Alien strikecraft, including fire trail, measures 8" (20cm) long and features shooting function Galactic Enforcer measures an impressive 19" (48cm) long with a 12" (31cm) wingspan
BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: Another one of my favorite sets in the Bottom 50.  Oh well.  This one has hope though.  It increased 5.97% last month, so maybe it is making a move up.  This set reminds me of the old Space theme, my first and all-time favorite LEGO theme.  The Space Police sets all have some rather interesting minifigures and this set has seven of them.  The set itself is quite large, with over 800 pieces, and impressive, with a ton of features and playability.  I'm rather surprised that a large set such as this has done so poorly over the last several years, but it looks like this set has seen its lows and might even be a worthy investment from this point on into the future.

Year Released	Pieces/ Minifigures	MSRP (US$)	Current Value(US$)	% Return Last Year	% Return From MSRP	CAGR(%)	Over/Under Mean CAGR
8943 AXALARA T9
2008	693	79.99	55.39	8.65	-30.75	-7.09	-18.08
LEGO.COM DESCRIPTION: Lewa Nuva is ready for battle in this massively powerful battlecruiser! With dual Midak Skyblasters and tri-arms featuring lasers and force field generators, its mission is to smash the Brotherhood of Makuta while there's still time to save the universe! Includes special-edition Lewa Nuva figure! Raise and lower the landing gear! Sides open to reveal the dual Midak Skyblasters that really fire! Turn the gear on the side to open and close the tri-arms! Hold the handle underneath to fly the Axalara T9! Lewa Nuva stands 7½" (19cm) tall! Measures over 20" (50cm) long and 13" (33cm) high!
BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: One of the largest of the popular and classic Bionicle themed sets, this is another large set that has underperformed.  Usually, the largest sets of a LEGO theme are the best in terms of investments, but once again, the largest set shows the smallest gains...or no gains in this case.  This set has shown some solid growth recently and I hope to see it continue, because I have one.  The set itself is damn cool.  It shoots rockets  that pop out of opening doors, has wings that contract and expand and other neat features.     A fantastic display set, it offers a lot of playability .  A set that doesn't deserve the Bottom 50 designation, it looks to be making some solid gains recently to maybe move it out of the CAGR cellar very soon.  Maybe you can pick up a cheap one and make some money here.

Year Released	Pieces/ Minifigures	MSRP (US$)	Current Value(US$)	% Return Last Year	% Return From MSRP	CAGR(%)	Over/Under Mean CAGR
7848 TOYS R US CITY TRUCK
2010	356/3	49.99	41.11	24.09	-17.76	-6.31	-17.3
LEGO.COM DESCRIPTION: Toys R Us Exclusive set!
BRICKPICKER ANALYSIS: Exclusives aren't always money makers in the LEGO world, especially Toys R Us exclusives.  This is a prime example.  The CITY theme is a solid producer and I still have hope for this set, but for whatever reason, this set hasn't really interested LEGO investors to this point.  Maybe the original MSRP was too high for the set.  I bought these sets at buy 2, get one FREE and to me, it's a solid investment.  But at $50, the starting point was too high.  I like the set though, just not at $50.

    As the reader can see, there aren't really any definite characteristics of a LEGO set that is unpopular and/or one that under-performs in the secondary LEGO market.  Besides the Racers and World Racers themes, there is quite a variety of poorly performing sets.  The Atlantis, Pharaoh's Quest, Prince of Persia and Toy Story themes find themselves in the Bottom 50 quite a lot, but I cannot honestly see any correlation between these themes or the sets that are in the Bottom 50.  Basically, it's a total crap shoot whether or not a theme will be unpopular, thus poor investments.

  What is funny is that the Brickpicker site is sometimes accused of telling people to “Buy, Buy, Buy,” yet I decided to write an article on the lowest of the low, to show potential investors not all LEGO sets will rise in value.  But there is still a silver lining with many of these poor performers.  Many of these unpopular sets were heavily discounted prior to retirement, so if purchased at the right price, many will have appreciated enough to be a decent investment.  There are several sets within the Bottom 50 that have made some nice gains over the past month.  Maybe the trend will continue and these sets will be a positive to your Brickfolio.
 

  I'll let you in on a little secret.  The title of this article is “Anatomy of a LEGO Investment Loser.”  Well, many people probably think it's the sets I'm referring to.  LOL.  Sorry to say, it's me I'm writing about.  I own half of these Bottom 50 sets.  HALF.  25 of 50.  While I have done quite well with many other sets and their appreciation over the past five or six years, I still invested in a ton of losers.  Point is, there are no surefire winners and some sets that you think logically should appreciate well, do not.  Emotion and luck play an important role as well.  In conclusion, let me tell you that diversification has helped me water down my losses and has kept me in the green overall.  Mix up your LEGO investments in themes, prices, sizes and styles and you will avoid losing too much money if you pick the wrong set on occasion.  Good luck in your choices and stay away from four-wheeled wastes of ABS plastic....